It’s said when a baseball pitcher delivers more balls than strikes, the pitcher “falls behind in the count.” A 3-1 count tilts the advantage strongly in the batter’s favor because in order to avoid a walk the pitcher has to throw a strike. This typically results in a clean ball across the plate and an eager batter hyper focused on seizing the opportunity presented in this rather transparent situation.
There are parallels to be found between Mike McCarthy’s play-calling with the Cowboys and a pitching scenario such as this. Falling behind in the count leads to obvious across-the-plate strikes in the same way falling behind on first and second downs lead to obvious passing situations on thirds.
Obvious passing downs are golden moments for thirsty pass rushers in the same way 3-1 counts are optimal for good hitters. In both situations the player can pin his ears back and attack. The hitter knows it’s likely to be in the zone across the plate and the pass rusher knows it’s likely to be drop back pass into the pocket.
The Cowboys face one of the fiercest pass rushes in the NFL when they travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns in Week 1. Dallas brings with them a pair of unproven rookies on their offensive line who aren’t just playing in their first NFL game but they’re playing that game at their new respective positions.
Breaking in a pair of rookies against one of the best pass rushes in the league is less than ideal. It’s critical the Cowboys don’t “fall behind in the count” and tilt the scales any further in the Browns direction. That doesn’t just mean productive early downs but also conceding defeat at times on third downs.
As the late great Kenny Rodgers once said, “you gotta know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em.”
Against the Browns, 3rd-and-10 or more might be a good time to fold ‘em and call a draw play.
What this doesn’t mean is conservative play on early downs. Success rate (SR) has taught that just because a play earned positive yardage the offense isn’t automatically in a better situation. A typical three-yard run on first down puts the team in a statistically worse situation than where on first down. In fact, most early down runs do that. In 2023, early down runs from the Cowboys only offered a 37.9 percent SR while early down passes produced a 52.1 percent SR.
When McCarthy calls a run, it needs to be a successful run, or he would have been better off with a pass attempt. Dak Prescott’s dropbacks consistently produce more yards and a higher success rate than runs, and yes, that factors in incomplete passes as well.
Short dropbacks, quick passes and limited progressions are just what the doctor ordered in Cleveland. McCarthy must avoid obvious passing situations, like 3rd-and-long, at all costs. For the sake of the two rookie offensive linemen and the sake of Prescott himself, McCarthy can’t allow the offense to fall behind in the count.
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