One of football’s gaudiest records seems ready for a fall, but one of the game’s premier playmakers apparently isn’t a real threat to break it.
That’s what NFL.com analyst Bucky Brooks thinks, anyway. He recently showcased a list of five pass-catchers who he deems the biggest threats to Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving record, but Cowboys superstar CeeDee Lamb is nowhere to be found.
It’s a somewhat puzzling stance, considering that Lamb led the NFL last season in receptions to finish a full 16 catches over the two runners-up (both of whom, coincidentally, did make Brooks’s list) and came in second in receiving yards.
Lamb was one of just two men- along with Miami’s Tyreek Hill- to top 1,700 receiving yards in 2023. That’s getting awfully close to Johnson’s mark of 1,964, which he set in 2012. Johnson himself has noted that his record is bound to be toppled- likely soon- given both a heavier emphasis these days on passing and the addition of a 17th game to the NFL season.
But according to Brooks, it’s more likely to be Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, or- you may want to sit down for this, Cowboys fans- Amari Cooper that does it than it is Lamb.
Hill is an obvious choice, having come within 166 yards of the record last year. Hitting 1,965 yards in 17 games requires a per-game average of 115.6 yards per contest. Hill wrapped up his 2023 with 112.4, putting him well within reach of Megatron.
St. Brown’s young career is still on the rise. In three seasons, his single-season yardage total jumped from 912 to 1,161 to 1,515. It could go even higher, but most of the Lions’ stacked offense returns for 2024, and there’s only one ball to go around.
The Vikings will look to get a big return on their investment in Jefferson. He was one of just three receivers to average triple digit yards per game last season, so he can set the field on fire… but can Sam Darnold/J.J. McCarthy reliably get him enough passes?
Pickens led all qualifying receivers last season in yards per catch, with 18.1. Even at that rate, he’d need 109 receptions to break the record, and only five players had that in 2024. (Pickens had 63.) New Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith would have to really commit to a downfield attack.
Cooper’s appearance on the list stings for Cowboys fans who still believe the team was too hasty in shipping him out of town prior to the 2022 campaign. The 30-year-old is still putting up quality numbers in Cleveland, and now has Ken Dorsey as his offensive coordinator… but is he really a more potent threat than his 25-year-old former teammate?
It’s story problem time.
Lamb averaged 13.0 yards per reception last year. It’s totally reasonable to think he’ll repeat that, since 13.0 also happens to be his career per-catch average over four NFL seasons. (He hit 13.9 in 2021 and has never turned in a season below 12.6.) At 13 yards per grab, Lamb would need 152 catches to break Johnson’s benchmark. He had 135 last year.
Math says that if Lamb had caught 17 more passes- just one more ball per game– in 2023 and simply maintained the per-catch average he’s already held for four full seasons, he’d already have broken Johnson’s record.
But he’s not a threat to do it in 2024???
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As long as we’re playing with Lamb’s very steady production rate of 13 yards per catch, let’s keep going.
Looking at the Dallas offense, it’s not out of the question. The emphasis will clearly still be on the passing game in 2024, as the team has actually taken a step backward with its running back corps. And while Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson are still there and there’s the annual expectation of some newbie to catapult into the WR3 role and make a noticeable contribution, there’s no real reason (yet) to believe that the ball will be distributed much differently than it was in 2023.
So let’s give Lamb two extra catches per game over his total from last year. That would be 169 catches. Granted, that’s a new all-time record for a season, and by 20 receptions, a decent amount. But two additional catches per outing actually doesn’t seem outrageous. Lamb ended 2023 with two or more targets than receptions in 13 of 17 games, so the chances were certainly there.
At 13 yards per catch, that would put Lamb well over 2,000. In fact, with that many grabs, his per-reception average could plummet to a career-low 12.0 yards, and he’d still top 2K.
Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving yards record will fall. Sooner or later, so will the 2,000-yard barrier. But to suggest that CeeDee Lamb isn’t one of the top legitimate candidates to do it?
That’s just dropping the ball.
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