The number is 15.
Or 16.
Maybe 17.
Eighteen, tops.
That’s how many first-round grades the Cowboys’ big board has on it, according to three-fourths of the war room’s brain trust. Owner and general manager Jerry Jones, executive vice president Stephen Jones, and head coach Mike McCarthy held their annual pre-draft press conference on Monday, and they revealed that they’ve got roughly their traditional number of first-round grades assigned ahead of Thursday’s initial picks.
More or less.
“That’s still to be determined. We’re still tweaking,” Stephen said. “Fifteen to seventeen, eighteen range. It should end up being pretty close.”
Unfortunately, the Cowboys hold the 26th selection. And that means the stars are currently aligning for them to take a first-round player who they don’t believe is first-round talent.
“The problem is,” Jerry explained, “the players I’m looking at, if they get to us, they’ve got a few warts on them.”
The draft’s opening night, then, becomes a matter of the Cowboys brass discussing amongst themselves whether those flaws are material enough to drop a prospect from consideration entirely. And all of that deliberation has to happen while another player is coming off the board every few minutes.
“It’s just so difficult to know right now,” Stephen continued. “You’ve got to let the draft play. We all know that takes hours; you’ve got plenty of time to be talking about it as guys are coming off and guys are starting to fall who you might like, not unlike CeeDee Lamb a couple years ago. You really don’t know until it happens.”
The team’s lead wide receiver fell into their lap with the 17th overall pick in 2020. It was such a surprise that the Cowboys hadn’t even interviewed him ahead of time.
This year, the Joneses say they’re prepared to make a move up if a prospect they covet starts to slip.
“I do catch myself thinking about a trade,” Jerry said. “We’ve done some of that when you’re trying to get a higher value.”
One of the more popular candidates for such a move this draft cycle, at least with outside analysts and experts, is Texas running back Bijan Robinson. Generally considered the most dynamic player at the position since Saquon Barkley went second overall in 2018, he could be a legitimate weapon in the Dallas backfield alongside Tony Pollard, but most mock drafts suggest he’ll be gone before the Cowboys go on the clock.
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The team has taken rushers in the first round before (although McCarthy pointed out he never has). Emmitt Smith was a first-round selection in 1990, and Ezekiel Elliott was chosen fourth overall in 2016.
So is Robinson the kind of first-round-graded player the Cowboys would trade up for in 2023?
There’s more to that answer than just talent.
“If you’re picking [in the] top ten, top twelve, fifteen, wherever you want to make the cutoff,” Stephen offered, “you really are thinking, ‘Boy, we’d- like to think- have to have a second contract out of that deal.’ So does it affect you when you’re thinking about a running back when you’re up that high? Yes. As you start to really move down the draft, you’d like to hope you’re going to have success, that that player’s going to be a second contract. But it’s in my opinion- one opinion- not as necessary that you get to that second contract. And if you happen to see a back there at the bottom of the first that’s rare and unique and he falls because he’s a running back, I would have to think we’d be considering it, especially if we thought he should have been picked in the top half [of the first round.]
“You can also get really good running backs, as a lot of teams have shown, in the second and third and fourth round as well. Every situation’s unique, but I do think you have to pay attention to the history and how these backs progress in our league: how many play at a certain level for five years, how many at a certain level for seven years, when does the curve really start to roll over on you in terms of the production?”
Translation: if the Cowboys could know for a fact that Robinson would not only make it to a second contract but make that much costlier deal worth the massive investment, then it’s worth trading up.
But despite all the reams of measurables and the exhaustive scouting reports, no one knows for sure.
And that means instinct and gut feelings come into play on draft night.
“There is a real, innate temptation,” Jerry explained, “to improve your situation and to physically do something about it, rather than sit there and wait for the gods to take care of you.”
Fate often intervenes within the game of football, as Jerry pointed out. And especially with ball carriers.
“What comes to my mind,” the owner shared, “is the physicalness and the injury factor. And you can have one and the next play not have one at a higher possibility there than maybe any other position. We’re dealing with Pollard today. We think Pollard’s going to be great, but we also know that can change. It changed in one play against San Francisco. So you’ve got to keep that in consideration. Do you need two backs? Do you need three backs? Do you need one that can be special teams as well as would you possibly need a fullback? There’s a bunch of nuances that go into this running back conversation.”
Not to mention Elliott’s current status. Jerry said in his next breath that he believes the two-time rushing champ is “still a very outstanding football player,” and that his salary, not his skill level, had become the issue.
“He’s too high for us, where he was. That has a lot to do with this conversation about running back right now, with us.”
Whoo, there’s a lot of ground covered there.
Clearly, the big boss in Dallas is still very much factoring Elliott into the team’s possible plans.
It’s the chicken and the egg. If the Cowboys end up with Robinson, either by trade or by luck, there would seem to be no room on the roster for Elliott. If they feel strongly about getting Elliott back, then maybe moving up to get Robinson is off the table. And perhaps, then, if none of their 15 or 16 or 17 or 18 first-round grades are available with the 26th pick, they bail entirely on Thursday night.
The point is, nobody really knows yet.
But Jerry and the Cowboys are always ready to listen to options.
“We may be interested in going down. Or maybe up. Or we might sit there, but keep us on your mind.”
It’s the Monday before the draft. There are no concrete answers.
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