Win predictions are an unavoidable part of early September. The vast majority of the NFL has spent the offseason trying to get better. Most have changed players, coaches or strategy, and sold hope to their respective fanbases.
Sometimes the hope is valid while other times it’s not much more than wishful thinking. Experts have been weighing in on the Cowboys’ hopes this season relentlessly. Some are high on Dallas, others are low. But what about the betting models?
The Athletic ran every NFL team through Austin Mock’s model and simulated the entire season 10,000 times to come up with the most accurate and unbiased prediction. While it’s far from perfect, it removes the extremes and offers up a relatively fair prediction based on a variety of metrics.
How are the Cowboys predicted to finish?
With the sixth most wins in the NFL, the Cowboys came out with a 10.3 win total average. The number may seem insulting for a franchise coming off back-to-back 12-win seasons but understanding the difficult schedule ahead for them and the fact 10.3 is the second highest predicted win total in the NFC (tied with San Fransico), it’s not exactly a disrespectful number.
The Cowboys could very easily be a better team in 2023 and still walk away with less wins. They face a brutal schedule and play in one of the most difficult divisions in the league.
Dallas is playing without their long-time offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, which adds a layer of unknown. Some may see Moore’s departure as a positive, but he consistently fielded one of the NFL’s top offenses and his replacement play-caller, Mike McCarthy, hasn’t called plays in years.
McCarthy’s words haven’t matched his past actions and there’s a layer of mystery surrounding the identity of his new “Texas Coast” offense.
The Cowboys’ special teams unit also threatens to disrupt the team’s success in 2023. The unproven USFL signing, Brandon Aubrey, starts the season as the field goal kicker. He’s new to kicking (a former professional soccer player) and has had a somewhat questionable training camp and preseason.
It’s not unreasonable to think a missed kick here or there could impact the Cowboys’ win total.
All in all, it’s a fair and reasonable prediction. The model calls the Cowboys a top-three team in the NFC, which is probably where Dallas and most of the fans see them as well.
Although, even with the questions and obstacles ahead for the Cowboys, it seems much more realistic for Dallas to finish with two more wins (12) than two less (8) than the predicted total. Assuming Dak Prescott and most major players stay healthy, the Cowboys have a high floor and high ceiling in 2023.
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