Cover 1, Cover 3, Cover your eyes: Cowboys defensive flip hasn’t worked

The Cowboys are doing something funny with their safeties and it isn’t working. | From @ReidDHanson

Most will agree, the Cowboys’ biggest shake up of the 2024 offseason was their change at defensive coordinator. Gone was Dan Quinn. After coaching the Dallas defense for three successful seasons, Quinn earned a head coaching job in our nation’s capital. Replacing him at the helm was long time coordinator Mike Zimmer. Zimmer brought with him his infamously demanding defensive scheme, a nonsense attitude and an acceptance for timely split safety looks.

While the Cowboys were still expected to lean on man coverage in 2024, they were also expected to show more two-high safety looks. Zimmer was known to disguise coverage frequently and split his safeties over the top from time to time. It was a departure from his predecessor who both preferred single high safety formations and didn’t put much value is disguises.

2024 has proven to be surprising but not quite in the way many imagined. Zimmer has indeed disguised coverages, rolling safeties and linebackers at the last second to catch passers off guard, but he hasn’t moved Dallas off the single-high safety reliance.

https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1848828006363529723

Between Cover 1 and Cover 3, the Cowboys play a combined 61% of their snaps in single high. While that may be down from the seasons prior, it still represents their two most popular coverages seven weeks into 2024.

It’s understandable since the Cowboys have two fairly different safeties starting on their defense. Malik Hooker, traditionally their free safety, has been one of the better centerfielders in the NFL. In his last two seasons under Quinn, he ranked inside the top 15 of the 88+ safeties Pro Football Focus graded. Donovan Wilson, their primary box safety, didn’t grade as well by PFF but since the majority of his splash plays come near the line of scrimmage with him running downfield, his positioning seemed appropriate as well.

Under Zimmer that has changed somewhat.

Hooker’s snap percentage at deep safety has dropped from 84 percent under Quinn to 66 percent under Zimmer. Wilson’s snap percentage at deep safety has jumped from 38 percent under Quinn to 57 percent under Zimmer. While the slight increase in split safety looks accounts for some of that, the two players can be seen routinely playing each other’s roles throughout a game.

Hooker can often be seen sneaking up into a box role while Wilson positions himself back as the single high. What would have been a unicorn moment in 2023 now looks commonplace on the Cowboys defense in 2024 and it’s hard to understand why.

Deception is one thing, but these are typically pre-snap alignments, so the intention is stated at the start. This is just a case of role swapping and based on early returns it isn’t working out great. Based on PFF grades Wilson is having the lowest graded season of his career in 2024. He’s flashed a nice play here and there, but most will agree it’s been a pretty poor season for the man who’s on the books for $7,370,575 this season.

Hooker is having a season to forget too. The former first-round pick is also having the lowest graded season of his career and is having a hard time justifying his more modest $3,985,296 cap hit as well.

It seems the two players were better when they were focused on their respective expertise. Maybe run fit discipline led to change or maybe it was matchups that has Zimmer playing mix and match with his two playmakers but whatever the reason, it doesn’t seem to be worth it.

The Cowboys are still leaning heavily on single high safety looks under Zimmer but where the new defensive coordinator differs from his predecessor is which safety he uses where. That may not be a good thing.

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