Every year, it feels like at least one division in the NFL sees a team fall from the top of the standings to the bottom, and the 2024 season is likely to be no exception.
Are the Bucs in danger of being that team this year?
Alex Wood of Athlon Sports recently broke down the chances of each division winner from 2023 to tumble down into the basement of their standings, and here’s what he had to say about Tampa Bay’s situation:
The Buccaneers had a slim hold on their division last season. They had the worst record of any division winner and only returned to the playoffs because they held the tiebreaker over the Saints for the NFC South title.
Tampa Bay had a productive offseason during which quarterback Baker Mayfield, wide receiver Mike Evans, linebacker Lavonte David and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. all re-signed. The issue is the Falcons are positioned to end the Bucs’ run of back-to-back-to-back division titles with the arrival of Kirk Cousins. The Saints also improved with a few fliers in free agency and impact draft picks.
The saving grace for Tampa Bay is the Panthers. Carolina had the worst record in the NFL last year and didn’t even get the benefit of adding the No. 1 pick as it had already been dealt to the Bears. The Buccaneers figure to still be in the mix with the Falcons for the NFC South crown, but they might be the most susceptible of any reigning division winner to a fall from grace.
Never say never, but the Bucs (just like every other team) should be wary of overconfidence. That said, they’re currently riding a three-year streak of NFC South titles, and as Wood mentioned, the Panthers still feel like the team most likely to occupy last place in the division again this year.
The Falcons and Saints could push the Bucs for the division title this season, but it would be hard to imagine Tampa Bay regressing so much that Carolina is able to leap ahead of them in the standings.
To check out Wood’s full list at Athlon Sports, click here.
[lawrence-related id=86894]