Throughout their history, the Raiders have had several fantastic seasons by their pass catchers. In 1983, tight end Todd Christensen put on a show in his first All-Pro season as he caught 92 passes for 1,247 yards and 12 touchdowns. Then there was Jerry Rice at the age of 40, who caught 92 passes for 1,211 yards and seven touchdowns in their Super Bowl run.
But the best season in Raiders’ history for a pass catcher was Tim Brown in 1997. Not only did he set a franchise record with 1,408 receiving yards, but he is also the only player in team history to ever reach 100 or more receptions.
Entering 2020, the Raiders don’t have a receiver on their roster capable of catching anywhere close to 100 passes. However, they do have a tight end that could potentially reach that mark, Darren Waller.
In his first full season as a starter, Waller grabbed 90 passes for 1,145 yards and three touchdowns for the Raiders. Entering his age 28 season, Waller is in the prime of his career, but he is still somewhat new to the tight end position.
For the most part, the expectation is that Waller’s numbers will drop some this season with the additions of wide receivers Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards. According to Mike Clay of ESPN, he has Waller projected for 75 receptions and 869 yards in 2020, which is a reasonably significant drop-off.
While Clay is likely right here about a possible regression, is there a chance that Waller actually improves on his numbers from last season and reaches the 100 reception total that only Brown has done in the Silver and Black? It’s certainly not improbable.
First and foremost, Waller is, by far, the best receiving option on the team. He will likely lead the team in targets once again and the presence of Ruggs and Edwards probably won’t be enough to steal away a significant amount of targets. Instead, the two rookie receivers may actually be able to help Waller as teams often double-teamed the star tight end, especially in the second half of the season.
It’s also worth noting that the Raiders have an incredibly difficult schedule this season, which could lead to them passing earlier in games. While the Raiders would love to be a balanced offense behind Josh Jacobs, it seems unlikely that they will be able to be as run-heavy as they were last season. That could force Derek Carr to throw the ball more often and if that’s the case, look for Waller to be on the receiving end for most of those targets.
Speaking of targets, Waller will need to receive more attention if he wants to reach that 100 reception mark. Last season, Waller saw just 117 targets and turned them into 90 receptions. It’s unlikely that he will be able to be that efficient again, so he will need to see 130+ targets to reach that goal. It’s not impossible, but that number would undoubtedly need to rise to accomplish the reception mark.
Waller was on the pace for 100+ receptions after the first seven weeks of the 2019 season, but then he hit a rough spot in the schedule as he caught just 15 passes from Weeks 7-11. For the Raiders to be successful this season, he can’t disappear for a month like he did last year. They need him to dominate each and every week to have a chance to make the playoffs.
Entering his second full season as a starter, expect Waller to become a more consistent player and potentially surpass his gaudy numbers from last year, as long as the quarterback play is competent. Don’t rule out the chance that Waller leaves the 2020 season as the team’s all-time single-season leader in receptions as he will be the team’s workhorse in the passing game.
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