The Miami Dolphins’ free agent spending spree was fast and furious this spring. Miami’s talent influx was decidedly one sided, too — there was little to no worry of losing talents via that same free agent process and, as a result, the Dolphins spent freely knowing they weren’t costing themselves any possible compensatory picks. One player frequently tied to the Miami Dolphins ahead of the start of free agency was defensive back Logan Ryan — who had played nickel and corner for the Tennessee Titans and enjoyed a career year in 2019.
But Ryan hasn’t been able to find a suitor willing to pay his desired rate — and as a result he remains a free agent with just about a month left before the start of the season. We last heard courtesy of Barry Jackson and the Miami Herald that the Dolphins aren’t aggressively pursuing Ryan — but that may change at any time, especially considering the link between the two parties courtesy of head coach Brian Flores, who shared time in New England with Ryan.
With Ryan recently making his case to all 32 NFL franchises that he is, in fact, a safety and not a cornerback, the fit is there. The Dolphins have targeted two cornerbacks to play safety in Eric Rowe and Bobby McCain, and Ryan played at a higher level than either of them while still taking his fair share of deep coverages last season for the Titans. Indeed, this is a fit that makes sense.
But does the money? With the looming cap reduction in 2021 amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Dolphins need to be careful and calculated with their spending from here on out. The expectation coming from the Ryan camp is that he won’t take a pay cut to play this season, which means he’s hoping for $10M+ annual average salary. Yes, the Dolphins have the cap space to bring that on for 2020 and have no questions asked— the team is currently credited with just over $24.5M in salary cap space, which is the 7th-highest figure in the league. But again, the concern here is for the 2021 cap, if Miami pays Ryan out a $10M salary for 2020 and he’s due the same amount in 2021, the Dolphins are losing not just $10M against the cap this year but actually $20M against the 2021 cap.
With $20M less at the team’s disposal for 2021, Miami would be looking at entering the 2021 offseason with a projected $6-8M in cap space. And that comes before any player re-signings or paying draft picks, which the Dolphins have two of in the first round alone. This won’t be an easy proposition — especially if the Ryan camp stands firm on their desired cost to play.
Yes, the Dolphins can manipulate the salary cap by offering Ryan a bigger signing bonus and give him significant money up front before prorating that figure — Miami could pay Ryan a marginal base salary and give him a $10M signing bonus that gets prorated over the life of his contract, let’s say hypothetically over 3 years, and costs the team $3.33M per season. That gets Ryan in the door for year one at his desired playing rate and helps the Dolphins avoid crippling the 2020 cap dynamics — but is Ryan going to play for reduced pay in 2021? Probably not, so you’ll have to beef up his 2021 base salary to compensate — which could be absorbed if the team wants to trim fat at the position.
There’s an obvious cut or trade candidate that could help the Dolphins make all this happen: the incumbent at Ryan’s presumed fit in the secondary. Current starting safety Bobby McCain has a similar resume to Ryan. He’s a former cornerback who thrives best in coverage in the nickel but has seen a transition to more deeper coverages. McCain isn’t as accomplished as Ryan and probably isn’t as good of a player when you project him to 2020, either. But McCain is two years younger than Ryan, which offers some added weight given Miami’s youth and desire for as much of it as possible.
McCain is on the books for each of the next three seasons at the following rate against the salary cap:
2020: $6.24M
2021: $7.14M
2022: $7.74M
Moving Ryan into the same role for an annual average salary of $10M per season isn’t that bad of a transition and if Miami is confident that Ryan’s play will be consistent through 2022, it may be a trade off worth considering — once you account for the salary cap. McCain has $5.238M in guarantees remaining on his contract that need to be accounted for. If Miami were to cut McCain (highly unlikely), they’d owe it between the 2020 cap and 2021 cap as dead money. If the team is able to trade McCain in some way, Miami would clear $5.5M off the books (McCain’s base salary for this season) and then owe dead money between 2020 & 2021 salary caps for the prorated signing bonus he was given — Miami would owe $740k in 2020 in dead money and $1.48M in 2021 in dead money to mark the three years of prorated signing bonus left on his deal.
If Miami could trade McCain and sign Ryan to deal with a highly saturated signing bonus, then yes — the team could bring Logan Ryan into the mix without compromising their delicate cap situation and flexibility. The team would be looking at a net loss of a few million dollars this year against the cap and next year against the cap depending on the specifics but a reasonable expectation would be that trading McCain and signing Ryan offers a slight net increase in 2020 cap, which would naturally reduce the carryover for next season, and a slight net increase in payroll for 2021. But it isn’t unrealistic to think Miami couldn’t land within $5M of their current forecast for 2021 salary cap space (something around $25M after carryover as things currently stand). It could work.
But that’s a lot of moving parts to see transpire in a short amount of time — and the Dolphins would have to either really love Ryan to make it happen or be really discouraged by the Bobby McCain experiment in year two.