The regular season is over. All the Alabama Crimson Tide and coach Kalen DeBoer can do now is wait to learn their postseason fate.
Alabama (9-3 overall, 5-3 SEC) made one last impression on the selection committee with a 28-14 victory over rival Auburn in the Iron Bowl on Saturday. The Crimson Tide overcame four turnovers, and Jalen Milroe was much improved from his performance against the Oklahoma Sooners a week earlier in a 24-3 loss that may still prove fatal to Alabama’s College Football Playoff hopes.
RELATED: Kalen DeBoer makes case for why Alabama should make College Football Playoff
Milroe was 18-of-24 for 256 yards through the air, with 104 yards and three touchdowns on the ground on 17 carries. Alabama led 28-6 until late in the third quarter when Auburn drove 87 yards on 10 plays and got a 29-yard Payton Thorne touchdown to Cam Coleman.
Is Alabama’s resume enough to get the Crimson Tide into the Playoff with three losses over teams like the Miami Hurricanes (9-2)? That’s what college football experts are debating after the final week of the regular season in the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12.
Heading into Championship Saturday, here’s what national college football writers and others in the sport’s media universe are saying about Alabama’s College Football Playoff and bowl game fate/projections — and which teams the Crimson Tide might face.
Alabama football’s updated CFP, bowl game projections after regular season
Alabama at Notre Dame (CFP first-round game, Dec. 20 or 21)
Alabama vs. Notre Dame is the most common projection among the experts’ CFP predictions. USA TODAY Sports analyst Erick Smith sees the Crimson Tide getting the final at-large berth in the playoff and making a trip to South Bend to face the Fighting Irish in a No. 12 seed vs. No. 5 seed matchup.
Smith writes:
“(T)he SEC gets its fourth team in the field with three-loss Alabama edging South Carolina on the basis of the head-to-head result between the schools.”
Alabama defeated South Carolina, 27-25, on Oct. 12 in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide haven’t visited South Bend since the 1987 college football season. The two teams have met twice in the postseason since then, including Alabama’s 42-14 romp of Notre Dame in the BCS National Championship on Jan. 7, 2013 in Miami.
Smith is far from the only one who sees Alabama taking on Notre Dame in a first-round playoff game. Another USA TODAY Sports expert, Austin Curtright, has the Crimson Tide and Fighting Irish squaring off in South Bend, as does ESPN’s Mark Schlabach.
Veteran college football reporter Brett McMurphy is another analyst who sees Alabama visiting Notre Dame.
Per McMurphy:
“Ultimately, I believe the committee will take 9-3 Alabama over 10-2 Miami and 9-3 South Carolina because the Tide have played a much tougher schedule and have more Top 25 wins than Miami. Plus, they own the head-to-head tiebreaker edge over South Carolina.”
On3’s Andy Staples sees Alabama facing Notre Dame, as well.
Staples writes:
“Of the teams vying for this spot, South Carolina is probably the one no one wants to see in the bracket. But the head-to-head losses to Alabama and Ole Miss seem prohibitive. Perhaps the committee will surprise us, but it seems to value power rankings like ESPN’s FPI, the Sagarin ratings and the Massey Ratings… All of those have Alabama ahead of the other teams in this group. The committee had Alabama one spot ahead of Ole Miss last week, but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything is written in stone.”
Alabama at Penn State (CFP first-round game, Dec. 20 or 21)
247Sports analyst Brad Crawford also projects Alabama to make the final 12-team field. But instead of a trip to South Bend, Crawford sees the Crimson Tide taking on the Penn State Nittany Lions in a No. 11 seed vs. No. 6 seed playoff game in Happy Valley.
From there, Crawford sees Alabama beating Penn State, then beating his projected ACC champion, the SMU Mustangs, in the Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta to set up a showdown between the Crimson Tide and Texas Longhorns in the CFP semifinals at the Orange Bowl in Miami.
The Sporting News’ Bill Bender agrees with the Alabama-Penn State projection. Alabama last played at Beaver Stadium on Sept. 10, 2011, a 27-11 Crimson Tide victory in Week 2 of the season.
Alabama at Texas (CFP first-round game, Dec. 20 or 21)
Sports Illustrated’s Nick Shepkowski sees Alabama making the playoff and facing Texas in Austin. A Tide-Longhorns matchup would be the third in as many years. Alabama won at Texas, 20-19, on a 33-yard Will Reichard game-winning field goal with 10 seconds left on Sept. 10, 2022. They lost, 34-24, to former Nick Saban assistant Steve Sarkisian in September 2023 at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Is Citrus Bowl Alabama football’s most realistic postseason destination?
Not everyone is sold on Alabama reaching the College Football Playoff after Week 14’s chaos. CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm projects the Miami Hurricanes to get the committee’s final at-large berth and face No. 5 seed Texas in the first round of the playoff.
Palm has Alabama in the Citrus Bowl in Orlando against Bret Beliema and the Illinois Fighting Illini on New Year’s Eve. Alabama last played in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day 2020, defeating Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan Wolverines, 35-16.
ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura also awards Miami a playoff spot over Alabama. Like Palm, Bonagura has the Tide facing Illinois in Orlando.
[lawrence-related id=96114,96051,95878]
Contact/Follow us @RollTideWire on X, and like our page on Facebook for ongoing coverage of Alabama news and notes, plus opinions.