We entered the weekend’s marquee matchup between the No. 8 Oregon Ducks and No. 7 Washington Huskies with a lot of questions about both teams, largely due to the fact that neither had played very elite competition throughout the first half of the season.
After a 36-33 win from Washington, we left the game on Saturday night with more questions.
Did the Ducks leave some points on the table in the first half and the third quarter? Certainly. Did Dan Lanning get a little overly aggressive in certain areas of the game? You could argue that was the case, though there is also an argument to be made that he was justified in his decision-making.
Did Oregon deserve to lose that game? To be honest, I’m not sure that either team really deserved to lose. Both the Ducks and Huskies put on an instant classic that went back and forth throughout the afternoon, one Heisman candidate delivering haymakers to the other and having them returned in due fashion.
Washington finished on top. They absolutely deserved to win that game.
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Michael Penix Jr. was picturesque in his precision, and his tough demeanor in the pocket whilst taking heat from a formidable Oregon defensive line was commendable. The Huskies made plays when they had to, and they walked out of the 115th matchup in this ‘Cascade Clash’ as the victors, owning arguably the most notable win in the history of the rivalry.
In turn, the Oregon Ducks left Montlake with their first loss of the season on Saturday evening. They returned to Eugene facing a lot of questions and “what ifs” that will likely keep the coaches and players up for a few nights.
Should they leave this weekend with less confidence, though? Absolutely not. If anything, I’d argue they should feel better about their team going forward.
I do.
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Football is a game of inches. If you’re a lifelong fan of the sport, then you’ve undoubtedly heard that phrase before. It’s a full-contact game measured in yards and quarters, played with an oddly-shaped ball. Sometimes it doesn’t bounce in your direction, or sometimes you come up an inch or two short of the goal.
That was the case for the Ducks on Saturday, though the ball didn’t bounce in their direction in a more metaphorical sense of the phrase, rather than the physical. Oregon went up against one of the best teams in the nation and held their own for 4 quarters. They outpaced the Huskies in total yards — 541 to 415 — passing yards — 337 to 316 — rushing yards — 204 to 99 — and total first downs — 32 to 24. I’d wager to guess that when a team leads in those four statistics, they generally win the game well over 95% of the time.
Instead, the Ducks lost, primarily because they went 0-for-3 on 4th down conversions.
Because of those few plays that didn’t go Oregon’s way, it ended up as a Washington win, solidified by Camden Lewis’ 43-yard field goal attempt sailing wide right as time expired. Lanning has already faced a lot of criticism for his aggressive decision-making throughout the game, and that criticism will continue going forward.
I’ll admit, I was claiming right after the final whistle sounded that this game was on Lanning, and that it was because of his calls that the Ducks fell out of the driver’s seat in the Pac-12 and the race for a spot in the College Football Playoff. After breaking down the game and studying the film, though, I’ve changed my tune.
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The decisions were the right ones. I’d even argue that many of the play calls were the right ones. It was the execution that needs work, but even then I would argue that the Ducks succeed in those opportunities far more often than they fail, given another chance.
4th and 3 from the 3-yard line. Give Bo Nix the ball 10 times, and how many of those tries does he turn into six points? Consider the fact that Oregon shouldn’t even be in that situation unless it were for an incredibly uncharacteristic throw from Nix that failed on third down.
A handful of plays decided the game for Oregon yesterday. All 3 fourth-down conversion attempts will be questioned.
I’d argue that this was the play they should want back the most. If Nix hits Holden here, that’s a collision at the goal line and likely a TD into the half. pic.twitter.com/nSnMUdGgOt
— Zachary Neel (@zacharycneel) October 15, 2023
What about the 4th and 3 from the 8-yard line? What percentage of times is Oregon’s offense — a unit that picked up over 6 yards per play — getting stopped short there? I’d venture to say it’s pretty low.
Another one Nix has to want back. 4th and 3. Incomplete to Franklin. Holden is wide open in the middle. Easy TD.
Play-calling wasn’t always the issue on 4th down. You have to execute. pic.twitter.com/d0W0Wfob6O
— Zachary Neel (@zacharycneel) October 15, 2023
The last 4th-down attempt is the most arguable in my mind, but I still see the reasoning for Lanning to go for it. With 3 yards standing between you and the biggest victory of your coaching career, you put the ball in the hands of your Heisman candidate QB and trust him to get the job done. I personally would have punted, but no part of me faults the Oregon coach for trusting in his players.
Dan Lanning and the Oregon coaching staff is confident that their players can get the job done. After seeing this Duck team go up against the No. 5 Huskies and outplay them for much of the game, I’m confident as well. The road ahead isn’t easy for this team, but they still hold onto their own destiny and have a chance to make it to the Pac-12 title game. Matchups with Washington State, Utah, USC, and Oregon State will be no walk in the park, but if they can win out, a rematch with Washington will likely be set for December 1st in Las Vegas.
The winner will have a reserved seat in the College Football Playoff.
That’s all still very possible for the Ducks. They hit a road bump against Washington on Saturday, but there is an opportunity for them to get back on course over the next couple of weeks and keep driving for the ultimate destination.
After seeing the way that this team fought on Saturday, I feel pretty confident that they get there.
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