The Indianapolis Colts will take the field at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon to face the Giants with their playoff hopes still intact, thanks to the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday evening.
Awaiting the Colts are the 2-13 Giants who have lost 10 straight games. It hasn’t been often this season where the Colts are the clear cut favorites, but this is one of those instances where they are the more talented and better team, and the hope is that the game plays out that way.
However, coming away with the road win and keeping their playoff hopes alive will fall on the shoulders of Joe Flacco, who will get the start with Anthony Richardson sidelined with back spasms.
Behind any victory or loss, there are always many factors that contribute to the result, but some elements play much bigger roles in determining the outcome than others. In today’s game versus the Giants, here are what those three keys are for the Colts.
Get Jonathan Taylor going
The blueprint for success for this Colts’ offense is going to start with Jonathan Taylor and the run game, as it does most weeks.
For one, that’s where the opportunity lies against this Giants defense that is allowing 4.8 yards per rush this season–the fifth-most in football. According to ESPN’s run-stop rate metric, the Giants rank 32nd.
But in addition to that, as we saw a week ago, a strong run game opens up opportunities in the passing game, with Anthony Richardson putting together an efficient 7-for-11 passing performance against the Titans after a rocky start. It also keeps the offense ahead of the sticks and in manageable down and distances. Again, looking at last week, the Colts had one of their best third down performances of the season, converting 8-of-15 attempts.
Then when operating from those short down-and-distance situations and staying out of obvious passing downs, it can take away some of the bit from the opposing pass rush, an area where the Giants have found some success.
Brian Burns vs Matt Goncalves
Burns lines up on both sides of the defensive front pretty regularly, but when on the defense’s left side, he is going to pose a pretty big test for rookie Matt Goncalves.
Burns leads the Giants in pressures by a pretty wide margin with 52. Those 52 pressures rank 19th among all defensive ends this season.
With each passing week, Goncalves looks more comfortable but as a first year player, there are still ups and downs that he’s navigating. With Joe Flacco at quarterback, Anthony Richardson’s supreme ability to avoid sacks will not be a part of the equation today.
As we all know, sacks put the offense behind the sticks, while pressures disrupt the timing and rhythm of the play, leading to incomplete passes, mistakes, and short possessions.
Giants run game vs Colts run defense
The Colts are the better team and hopefully the game plays out that way. But how can the Giants hang around? Through the run game. On the season, the Giants as a team rank 14th in yards per rush with rookie Tyrone Tracy leading the way with 721 rushing yards at 4.6 yards per attempt.
As highlighted above with Taylor, the same can ring true for the Giants. Success on the ground can keep the offense ahead of the sticks and out of obvious passing situations. That means more manageable third downs and potentially longer possessions with New York controlling the clock, like many of the Colts’ opponents have this season.
But on the flip side, if the Colts can contain the New York run game, that will force them to become pass-heavy against an offensive line that has surrendered one of the highest pressure rates this season.
Given New York’s lackluster passing game, we should see a more aggressive approach from Gus Bradley, where the emphasis is on slowing the running game, which means more defenders near the line of scrimmage.