There are still four games left in the NFL’s regular season, but the Indianapolis Colts find themselves in playoff mode this week against the Denver Broncos.
If the Colts want to keep their playoff hopes alive, this is essentially a must-win game. According to PFF, a win over Denver–who the Colts currently trail by two games for the AFC’s final wildcard spot–gives Indianapolis a 68% chance of making the playoffs.
A loss, however, and their playoff hopes plummet to just 10%, and would likely require some sort of collapse from either Baltimore or the Los Angeles Chargers.
Anthony Richardson has provided the Colts’ offense and the team as a whole a spark since returning to the starting lineup, which includes improved play and two game-winning drives late in the fourth quarter. But awaiting Richardson and the Colts is a very stingy Denver defense.
So with kickoff inching closer, let’s take a closer look at this 2024 Broncos team and who the Colts will be up against.
Last week: Broncos were on a bye
Like the Colts, the Broncos also had their bye last week. So from a rest and preparation standpoint, the Colts do not gain an advantage, with Denver having the same amount of time off.
Leading up to the bye week, the Broncos beat Cleveland at home 41-32 in a high scoring game.
Quarterback play
The 12th overall pick in this past April’s draft, Bo Nix, has helped guide the Broncos to an 8-5 start. For the most part, he has provided a steady presence, completing 64% of his passes at 6.5 yards per attempt with 17 touchdowns to eight interceptions.
In a loaded quarterback rookie class, Nix leads his fellow 2024 draft picks in passing yards and passing touchdowns this season.
“Nix has provided steady, prolonged quality quarterback play for the first time (I’d argue) since the Manning era in Denver,” wrote Brandon Walker of Broncos Wire. “He is a confident leader, who has rallied the support of his veteran teammates. When he makes mistakes, he bounces back from them. That kind of performance under center has been lacking in Denver for so long, and Nix has shown that he is steering the ship.”
Line of scrimmage
As we all know, games are often won and lost in the trenches. On the defensive side of the ball, the Denver front has been dominant, allowing the third-fewest yards per rush at 3.8 and generating the third-highest pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks. The Colts offensive line, which has been up and down this season, in part due to injuries, will be tested on Sunday.
The Broncos offensive line, meanwhile, has done well giving Nix time, with him under pressure at the eighth-lowest rate this season. When under duress, Nix is completing just 44% percent of his passes compared to 71% from a clean pocket. In the run game, Denver ranks 19th at 4.2 yards per carry.
Turnovers
The Broncos rank in the top half of the NFL in turnover differential at plus-3 this season, which is tied for 11th overall. The defense ranks inside the top 10 in takeaways, while the offense is around the middle of the pack in giveaways. Nix’s eight interceptions are tied for the 13th-most.
Injury updates
After the first day of practice this week, the Broncos have only two players listed on their initial injury report, and overall, have only three players on injured reserve.
S Brandon Jones (abdomen): Limited
CB Riley Moss (knee): Did not practice
Both Jones and Moss are starters for the Broncos in the secondary.
Stats to know
I recently put together a stats comparison between these two teams, taking a closer look at how the Colts and Broncos stack up in several key metrics. For more on that, click here.
Players to know
RB Javonte Williams: The lead back for Denver, Williams has totaled 446 rushing yards at 3.6 yards per rush with four touchdowns. Williams also sees his share of targets in the passing game.
WR Courtland Sutton: A go-to target for Nix, Sutton has 102 targets this season, catching 62% of those throws for 846 yards and five scores.
Zach Allen, Jonathan Cooper, and Nik Bonitto: We highlighted above that Denver has been one of the best at creating pressure, and these three are leading the way. The trio of Allen at defensive tackle, along with Cooper and Bonitto at defensive end have combined for 147 pressures and 28 sacks.
CB Pat Surtain: Opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of just 61.6 when targeting Surtain, who has only 36 targets this season, allowing a completion rate of 72% and only 8.2 yards per catch. Surtain leads the team with three interceptions and has four pass breakups.