Through the first three games of the season, the Indianapolis Colts (2-1) have been relatively solid on the offensive side of the ball with minimal complaints. But there is an area of struggles that is becoming a concern for the unit.
Under head coach Frank Reich, the Colts pride themselves in being an offense that thrives in situational play. Given his intuitive play calls, an elite offensive line and an all-around solid roster, the Colts should be among the leaders in red zone and third-down situations.
But they haven’t been to open the season, and this trend has to stop before the Colts get too deep into the season.
While Sunday’s 36-7 victory over the New York Jets (0-3) saw a bounce-back in the red zone (2/2), the Colts have major concerns when it comes to their efficiency on third down.
Through the first three weeks of the season, the Colts are dead-last in third-down conversions at 30.3%. Even the Jacoby Brissett-led offense in 2019 converted at a much higher rate (41.5%) than what the Colts are doing now.
Given the history of Reich’s success in this area and the roster that has been assembled, this rate likely won’t last. The Colts are too good and too smart to be the worst third-down offense in the NFL. But it is concerning, nonetheless.
What’s most concerning about this trend to begin the season is who it’s coming against. The Colts aren’t playing strong defenses. They aren’t even playing top-half defenses in the league. And still, they are failing to convert on third downs, which is a vital part of sustained success for an offense.
If they are converting only a third of their third-down attempts against bad defenses, what happens when they play against units like the Ravens, Bears and Steelers? It’s going to be much harder to win games against those types of defenses.
Again, this trend shouldn’t last—statistically speaking anyway. The Colts have been a strong third-down unit under Reich and the pieces they have in place allow for success to happen.
But the Colts need to figure out how to improve this area of the offense quickly, especially in Week 4 when they visit the Chicago Bears, who are currently allowing the third-lowest conversation rate on third downs (30.95%).
Third down is a vital area of the offense for the Colts and before they get into the difficult part of the schedule, they have to work out the kinks in order to compete for a playoff spot.
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