The Indianapolis Colts will enter Week 15 of the NFL season with their playoff hopes still intact. So what needs to happen in order for them to make it?
At 6-7 on the year, the Colts are the eighth seed in the AFC. They currently trail the seventh-seeded Denver Broncos by two games for the final playoff spot. The good news, however, is that the Colts play the Broncos this week and have the NFL’s easiest remaining schedule.
For what it’s worth, NFL.com puts the Colts’ playoff chances right now at 26 percent.
So step one to all of this is that the Colts must beat the Broncos. If they don’t, their playoff hopes will be all but dashed. At that point, the Colts would be three games behind Denver with three games to play and the Broncos would hold the tie-breaker.
If the Colts beat the Broncos, they are then just one game back and they would hold the tie-breaker over Denver. Then over the final three games, the Colts would have to win out and the Broncos would need to lose once more, which would give both teams the same record, with Indianapolis holding the aforementioned tie-breaker.
Following the Colts game, the Broncos finish their season at the LA Chargers, at Cincinnati, and home against Kansas City.
If the Colts beat Denver but lose one of their remaining three games after that contest, then they would need the Broncos to lose two of their final three games in order to end up with the same record, while still holding the tie-breaker.
However, something to be mindful of in this situation are the Miami Dolphins, who after a win over the Jets on Sunday are now 6-7 as well–although the Colts do hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Along with Denver being 8-5 so are the Ravens and Chargers–both of whom have very high playoff probabilities with Baltimore at 97% and Los Angeles at 89% per NFL.com.
At a minimum, the Colts would have to make up two games on these opponents to have the same record as them and then would need the tie-breakers to fall their way since Indianapolis didn’t play either team head-to-head this season.
This most likely would require the Colts to finish the year 4-0 with either Baltimore or Los Angeles going 2-2 and potentially needing one of them to go 1-3 if the tie-breakers don’t favor the Colts.
The first tie-breaker scenario for these teams is going to be conference record, and going into Week 15, all three teams right are 5-4 within the AFC. From there, here are the proceeding tie-breakers as needed:
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four
- Strength of victory
- Strength of schedule
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
The Chargers finish their season vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Denver, at New England, and at Las Vegas.
Baltimore, meanwhile, is at the New York Giants, vs. Pittsburgh, at Houston, vs. Cleveland.
Lastly, when it comes to the AFC South, with Houston having beaten the Colts in both games this season, thus holding the tie-breaker, the Colts will have to finish the season 4-0 and the Texans 1-3 or worse in order to claim the division title.