A tough loss to a division opponent in Week 1. The Colts showed some nice things but, ultimately, were gassed on defense at the end of the game and weren’t able to stop the Texans from closing it out. That’s no shot at the Colts defense: they played 76 defensive snaps this past weekend, the most snaps any opposing defense faced in Week 1. On the other hand, the Colts offense ran 43 plays, the fewest of any offense in Week 1.
Let’s back up for a second and set the stage for this article. Every week, we’ll be digging into the Colts passing offense. We’ll kick things off with a high level look using stats (some standard, some advanced), then dig into a play or two. Sometimes it’ll be a big play. Sometimes it’ll just be a fun play.
We’ll start out by looking at his passing chart (from NFL Next Gen Stats), so let’s get rolling.
He broke it. Anthony Richardson broke the chart. This chart goes up to +50 air yards, and Richardson beat that mark while falling backwards, surrounded by enemies. Truly an insane feat. According to Ben Baldwin’s RBSDM, Richardson had an ADOT (Average Depth of Target) of 16.4. In 2023, among QBs who accounted for at least 20% of their teams passing attempts, Will Levis led the league with an ADOT of 11.1. And Levis only has two modes: drinking mayo and hucking the ball (and he’s all out of mayo).
In his limited time last year, Richardson had an ADOT of 8.0. So 16.4 is a wild number, but it’s also not something I expect to see every week. Or maybe we will! I’m excited to find out.
Everything else is within 20 yards (although this chart does seem to be missing the deep throw to Pierce in the 4th quarter). It’s also pretty evenly distributed. Targeted the left side of the field more than the right, but not by much.
Given some of the throws he missed, I expected his CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) to be lower than the -4.3% mark we’re seeing here. Obviously negative isn’t great – and his 47.4% completion on the day doesn’t exactly inspire confidence – but a small negative number like that speaks to the difficulty of some of the throws Richardson was attempting this week.
When Richardson did drop back to pass, he did so with a heavy play action game to work off of. The Colts used play action on 45.8% of Richardson’s dropbacks (per NFL Pro), the 2nd highest mark of the week (the highest was Justin Fields’ eye-popping 53.6% play action rate). The highest user of play action in 2023 was Kirk Cousins at 31.1%, so I don’t expect that 45.8% to stick, but it’s always worth pointing out outliers early and seeing if it’s a one-off approach, or if that’s a new trend to pay attention to throughout the season.
Alright, that’s enough numbers for now. Let’s look at a play.
You know what? It’s Week 1. Let’s look at two plays; the touchdown passes. Mostly because the bomb to Pierce is fun, but not a lot to unpack. So let’s start there.
Play 1: 1st & 10, 5:20 remaining in the 1st quarter
Colts are in 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) in a tight formation. The Texans respond with a 4-3 look. One safety is in the box early, but backs out to a pinched two-high look before the ball is snapped.
The Colts run a two-man concept with max protect up front. Ashton Dulin [16] pushes vertically to the middle of the field, drawing the two deep defenders on his side. At 15 yards, Dulin plants and cuts to the sideline, drawing the defenders with him and holding them to that intermediate area.
Meanwhile, Alex Pierce [14] is running a deep post. Although, based on what we’re seeing here, it may just be called the “I’m faster than you” route. Pierce pushes vertically up the field, gives a little fake to the outside, then cuts to the post, splitting the two defenders over him.
Richardson lays this it up over the top with perfect placement on a ball that traveled 70 yards in the air.
Absurd.
Play 2: 1st & 10, 12:22 remaining in the 4th quarter
Once again, the Colts are in 12 personnel in a tight formation. Texans are showing a 4-3 look with a Quarters look on the back end. The Colts initially align with Dulin as the lone receiver on the left and Adonai Mitchell [10] as the lone receiver on the right, but Dulin motions to the right pre-snap.
The Colts are running a Dagger concept off motion, with Mitchell running the vertical clear-out route and Dulin running a deep in-cutter underneath.
The play action doesn’t influence the linebackers, who drop deep to take away the middle of the field. Jonathan Taylor [28] releasing to the flat removes one of those linebackers from falling under Dulin, but the man in the middle rallies to try to take it away.
However, Richardson rips this throw just past his outstretched hands. With the deep safety running with Mitchell, Dulin finds himself with a really nice lane to speed through. He erases the angle at the end and uses a stiff-arm to find his way to glory.
An absolute dart from Richardson and a great play from Dulin ends with a 54 yard touchdown.
Albums listened to: The Heavy Heavy – One of a Kind; Hinds – VIVA Hinds; Hazel English – Real Life