The Colorado Rockies (43-50) open up the 2nd half against the Milwaukee Brewers (50-43) Friday in the 1st of a 4-game set at American Family Field. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rockies vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: First meeting of 2022. Brewers went 5-2 against the Rockies last year.
When you look at these two teams’ last 10 games, you might think you’re becoming dyslexic. Colorado is 7-3, and Milwaukee is 3-7. The Rockies struggle away from home though, as they’re just 15-27 away from Coors. Colorado is also likely to start flipping assets before the trade deadline like All-Star 1B C.J. Cron.
Milwaukee has great starting pitching, but its bullpen has been susceptible of late. Closer Josh Hader is going through the worst stretch of his career as he allowed 9 ER in his last 2 appearances and 12 ER in 5 1/3 innings for a 20.26 ERA in July. The Brew Crew is 12th with 4.57 runs per game, which isn’t enough to mask some of its deficiencies.
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Rockies at Brewers projected starters
RHP Antonio Senzatela vs. RHP Corbin Burnes
Senzatela (3-5, 4.59 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.80 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 5.1 K/9 in 60 IP.
- Allowed 7 ER in 7 IP in his last 2 starts before the All-Star break.
- Allowed 2 ER on 7 H, 3 BB and 5 K in 5 IP at Milwaukee last season.
- Opposing Brewers are hitting just .225 with a .280 weighted on-base average in 77 plate appearances against Senzatela.
Burnes (7-4, 2.14 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 0.90 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 113 2/3 IP.
- Has a 1.59 ERA and 60 K’s in 45 1/3 innings in his last 7 starts.
- Allowed 1 ER on 3 H and 2 BB while fanning 7 in 6 IP against Colorado at home last season.
- Opposing Rockies are hitting just .207 with a .240 weighted on-base average in 64 plate appearances against Burnes.
Rockies at Brewers odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:38 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Rockies +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Brewers -290 (bet $290 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rockies +1.5 (-103) | Brewers -1.5 (-117)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Rockies at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Rockies 2
Money line
The Brewers have a massive advantage on the bump. Can they score enough to cash a first 5 innings bet, though? Senzatela is a 5-inning, 2-ER kind of pitcher, and Burnes has been money. We’re not touching the -280 ML, but I will consider BREWERS FIRST 5 INNINGS (-155) for a HALF UNIT.
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Run line/Against the spread
The Brewers aren’t winning enough, or by a good enough margin, to consider on the RL. I don’t trust the Rockies bats on the road, either. PASS.
Over/Under
Milwaukee went Under in 7 of the last 10. The Under hit in Burnes’ last 2 starts. You can’t read much into Colorado’s last 10 because they were at Coors Field and Chase Field, which are hitters’ havens. With the Brewers struggling offensively, and no one putting much wood onto Burnes’ offerings, let’s LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-120).
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