The Colorado Rockies (42-54) stop by Dodger Stadium Friday to start a three-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers (59-39) at 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rockies vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Dodgers lead 8-2.
RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez takes the hill for the Rockies. He is 3-6 with a 5.99 ERA (85 2/3 IP, 57 ER), 1.47 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 5.1 K/9 over 14 starts and four relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 10-4, with 4 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 2 BB and 2 K last Friday against the Dodgers.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster (95 PA): 4.97 FIP with a .224 batting average (BA), .308 wOBA, .527 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 12.6 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 95 plate appearances.
LHP David Price is L.A.’s projected starter. He is 4-0 with a 3.12 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.56 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 over five starts and 20 relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 4 K in L.A.’s 6-5 loss at Colorado Sunday.
- Price has appeared in four games against the Rockies this season (one start) and is 0-0 with 3 ER, 9 H, 1 BB and 10 K over 7 2/3 IP.
- vs. Rockies on the current roster (60 PA): 4.99 FIP with a .288 BA, .356 wOBA, .544 xSLG, 25.0 K% and 89.3 mph EV.
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Rockies at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Rockies +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Dodgers -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rockies +2.5 (-125) | Dodgers -2.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Dodgers 4, Rockies 3
Money line (ML)
PASS because this is more than I’m willing to spend for an outright L.A. victory even though the Dodgers are obviously the correct side.
Furthermore, Colorado is 15-13 against left-handed starters this season and Price’s pitching peripherals against this Rockies lineup are almost identical to Gonzalez’s against L.A.’s.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the ROCKIES +2.5 (-125) for a tiny wager as a “contrarian play” against a market that’s barreling into L.A.’s run line for obvious reasons.
However, this could be a bit of a “let down” spot for the Dodgers who just lost three of four games in a pivotal series against the first-place San Franciso Giants. L.A.’s bullpen gave up 4 runs in the top of the ninth inning in a 5-3 loss Thursday.
That said, Gonzalez gave up 5 first-inning runs in his last start against the Dodgers and there’s really nothing Colorado does better than L.A.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a half unit because if the Rockies are going to cover the spread, the most foreseeable path to Colorado keeping this one close would be a low-scoring affair.
Also, the Rockies lineup is by far the least productive crew on the road. Colorado’s 60 wRC+ on the road is 18 points below the second-lowest mark in the majors.
More importantly, we are getting some “reverse line movement” in the betting market as nearly 85% of the cash wagered has been on the Over, according to Pregame.com, but the 9-run opening total has been steamed down.
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