The Colorado Avalanche try again to put away the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final Sunday at Amalie Arena in Tampa. The Avalanche lead the best-of-7 series 3-2. Puck drop is set for 8 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN+). Below, we look at the Avalanche vs. Lightning Stanley Cup Final Game 6 odds and lines, and make our expert NHL picks, predictions and bets.
Tampa quieted the Colorado crowd in Game 5 and won 3-2 in what was an awesome performance by G Andrei Vasilevskiy. The officiating was really strict, which worked against Colorado, who may have been beneficiaries of some lax officiating in the previous tilt. Tampa adjusted its game, and Colorado was 0-for-2 on the power play after scoring on 50% of its PPs in the previous 3 games.
Colorado will have to play a better 5-on-5 game. The Avs got caught for too many men on the ice (in ironic fashion) with under 3 minutes to go, which really hamstrung their chances to get the extra attacker on. This was a close game. We were able to come away with a +155 winner on Tampa’s ML but missed on the Over in Game 5. Tampa hit a couple of posts, and Avs C Nathan MacKinnon had Vassy beat on a breakaway, but shot between his legs and wide of the net.
Also see: Prop bet payday: 3 prop bet predictions for Game 6
Avalanche at Lightning odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:31 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Avalanche -115 (bet $115 to win $105) | Lightning -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Avalanche -1.5 (+195) | Lightning +1.5 (-280)
- Over/Under (O/U): 5.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
Avalanche at Lightning projected goalies
Darcy Kuemper (9-4-0, 2.69 GAA, .898 SV%, 1 SO – postseason) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (14-8, 2.54 GAA, .921 SV%, 1 SO – postseason)
Kuemper stopped 26 of 29 shots in Game 5 and looked pretty good early on. He let a bit of a soft goal go in from D Jan Rutta on a slapshot from the point, and that seemed to unnerve him. He has been OK at best this series, allowing 2+ goals in 4 of 5 outside of the Game 2 shutout in which he only faced 16 shots. He’ll need to be better than an .898 SV% goalie to win this one.
Vasilevskiy really only allowed 1 goal in Game 5, and it was a fluky one. He made a save that took an awkward bounce, and he couldn’t find the puck. The Avs were right there for the rebound. The second goal went off his own player’s skate into the 5-hole. Beyond that, he was amazing and has put his team on his back. The Avs will keep coming, though.
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Avalanche at Lightning picks and predictions
Prediction
Avalanche 3, Lightning 2
Money line
This same scenario happened in the conference semifinals for Colorado as St. Louis entered the gauntlet in Game 5 and made it to the other side. Colorado disposed of them in Game 6 in St. Louis. The same thing happens here, but in Tampa Bay. Colorado is too talented, and nothing shakes its confidence. A Game 7 would, and the Avs will do anything to avoid having to play that game. Look for them to fire 35-40 shots on net and overwhelm the Lightning defense to hoist the Cup for the first time since 2001. Take the AVALANCHE (-115).
Against the spread
We haven’t had a single empty-net goal in this series, and I don’t see the Avs running away with this one. So I can’t suggest Avs -1.5 (+195) in all its enticing glory. The Avs scored first in the first 3 games of this series, and Tampa made some adjustments to break through first in Games 4 and 5. Colorado does the same in Game 6 and gets on the board early. Take AVALANCHE FIRST GOAL (-119).
Over/Under
The previous 2 games have been Under 5.5, and we’re still looking at a +105 for the Under in this one. It feels like a trap. Games 1-3 had totals of 7, 7 and 8. While I don’t expect a total that high, I would like some wiggle room, and 6 feels like a good number. LEAN to the ALTERNATE TOTAL GOALS UNDER 6.5 (-165).
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