It is now widely known that the Atlantic Coast Conference’s top 2020 scheduling option is an 11-game schedule with 10 conference games and one nonconference game.
Sources: The ACC is discussing scheduling models, with 10 league games and a "plus one" outside the conference as the favorite. The ACC start date is still being debated between September 12, 19 and 26.
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) July 24, 2020
When you consider the above tweet, one would have to think the ACC will try to start on Sept. 12.
It makes basic sense, right? If the Pac-12 — with a 10-game schedule — is likely to begin on Sept. 19, any league with an 11-game schedule must begin on Sept. 12, and any league trying to play 12 games must begin on Sept. 5.
We told you what the Pac-12’s schedule is expected to look like when it is officially unveiled next week and the plan receives approval from presidents and chancellors. One of the key components of the Pac-12’s plan is having two built-in idle weeks, so that if a COVID-19 outbreak occurs, a postponed game can be made up later in the season. The possibility of a postponement would lead to the Pac-12 Championship Game being pushed back from the weekend of December 4 or 5 (Friday or Saturday) to December 11 or 12. Multiple postponements could put the Pac-12 title game on December 18 or 19.
The ACC and the other conferences would presumably have these same backup plans built into their own schedules. That point seems obvious enough, but let’s realize what an 11-game ACC schedule would mean for college football:
More games means more chances of a postponement. More of a chance of a postponement means a higher likelihood that the ACC Championship Game will be pushed back on the schedule. This, in turn, means the College Football Playoff would start later, being pushed deeper into the heart of winter instead of being done in very early January. The schedule is going to be pushed back with multiple COVID-19-related postponements.
Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News, a few weeks ago, recommended a conference-only schedule for the Pac-12, and the league delivered that… but Wilner also recommended an eight-game schedule to allow for more makeup dates and fewer chances of teams suffering outbreaks of the virus. This created more flexibility, but it also improved the odds of playing every game which was scheduled.
What college football seems to be doing is different from that. Playing 11 games instead of eight improves the odds not of reducing outbreaks, but of having postponed games, which pushes the season more into flu season and increases the possibility that a scheduled game won’t be played (if an outbreak is severe enough).
We will see what the SEC and Big 12 have to say, but college football currently seems to be setting itself up for disappointment rather than focusing on more realistic goals. We will have more to say about this larger topic when the SEC and Big 12 offer their scheduling plans.