First, it’ll mean that the SEC just made a lot more money
We’re all just floating through life right now secure in the knowledge that the College Football Playoff will just work itself out – because it always does.
But what if it doesn’t?
We’re six years into this grand experiment, and we have yet get a true conference championship curveball.
This week, let’s assume that Florida gets by LSU and Alabama takes care of Arkansas.
Notre Dame and Clemson are already in the ACC Championship without having to play anyone this week, and let’s hand Ohio State a win over Michigan, if the game even goes on.
And while I’d like to argue that a 6-0 Pac-12 champion USC would be every bit as deserving of a CFP spot as an unbeaten Big Ten champion Ohio State, that’s not realistically going to be on the table … maybe.
Also, let’s not bring up Cincinnati. It insults us both.
The Chalk Scenario
So if it’s all easy peasy …
Alabama beats Florida, Ohio State takes down Northwestern, and Clemson tastefully beats Notre Dame.
We’re done.
Alabama vs. Notre Dame in the Sugar, Ohio State vs. Clemson in the Rose.
What happens if Notre Dame beats Clemson?
Now we get super-funky, because it would depend a on how bad the win is.
If Florida beats Bama, then this is easy. Notre Dame vs. Bama in the Sugar, Florida vs. Ohio State in the Rose.
But let’s assume Alabama wins.
If Notre Dame wins in a blowout, it’s done – Clemson is out.
Maybe.
However, if it’s a repeat of the classic in South Bend a few weeks ago, then in a theoretical way, the argument could be made that Notre Dame is one of the top two teams in college football and Clemson is still one of the top four.
6-0 Pac-12 Champion USC would have something to say about that, and Texas A&M would have a massive beef, especially because no two-loss team has ever been in the College Football Playoff.
Absolutely no one is thinking Clemson will lose, so really – what happens if Notre Dame actually wins?
Throw me a number. How much does Notre Dame win by?
14. Is that enough? Does the committee cringe at the idea of Alabama vs. Texas A&M – a rematch of a Bama blowout earlier in the year – in the Sugar Bowl?
How good does USC look to close things out?
If Notre Dame wins by fewer than 14, I still think Clemson is in – and the howling is deafening.
More than 14, Bama wins, Ohio State wins, and it’s Game On for USC, Texas A&M, and maybe even … I can’t bring myself to think it, much less type, much less …
Cincin … I can’t.
In this scenario, yeah. I actually think it could possibly be USC getting that fourth spot, and it’s easier than you’d think.
Four Power Five champions – Notre Dame, Bama, OSU, USC – and all four unbeaten.
Okay, then …
Clemson, Ohio State, Florida all win
Clemson beats Notre Dame in a decent, tight game.
Ohio State rolls on through and wins the Big Ten.
Florida beats Alabama, and it’s close.
NOW what do you do, College Football Playoff committee?
Notre Dame types are just assuming the CFP is a done deal no matter what.
Nope.
If Florida and Clemson win, Clemson is absolutely in, Florida is absolutely in, Ohio State is absolutely in – I’m with you on a deserve/resumé rationale, but no way, no how is an unbeaten Big Ten champion Ohio State left out – and as long as it’s not a total wipeout, Alabama is absolutely in.
Notre Dame is out.
So let’s do this. Assuming nothing weird happens this week …
– Alabama is probably in no matter what, as long it doesn’t lose to Florida by more than 24.
– Florida is in if it beats Alabama. Even if it loses in overtime, the only way it’s in with a loss is if Northwestern beats Ohio State.
– Clemson is in if it beats Notre Dame, and could still get in with a really, really tight loss and a Florida or Ohio State loss.
– Notre Dame is in with a win, in with a loss and an Alabama win, and probably out with a loss and a Florida win,
– USC needs to get someone to notice what happened against Washington State in the first quarter of the 38-13 win, and then it has to do that again against UCLA when people are paying attention, and again in the Pac-12 Championship, and then needs Alabama to beat Florida, and needs Notre Dame to rock Clemson and/or Ohio State to lose.
– Texas A&M needs a miracle. USC has to be out of this, Ohio State has to lose, and Alabama has to beat Florida in a blowout.
No matter what, though, we’re going to get four heavyweights.
Yay.