There were a lot of differences between the Rams’ 2018 and 2019 seasons. The running game took a major step back this year, as did Jared Goff and the offensive line. The special teams unit also underperformed, which played a significant role in the team’s overall issues.
But something not many people are talking about is the Rams’ performance in close games. In 2018, they went 6-1 in games decided by one possession. This season, their record was 3-3, and that includes a meaningless Week 17 win over the Cardinals.
In the NFL, every game matters, and had one or two of those close losses gone the Rams’ way instead of their opponents’, Los Angeles would probably be preparing for a playoff game right now.
FiveThirtyEight dug even further into this development and looked at every game where ESPN’s win-probability model was within 40-60% in the last five minutes of regulation. In other words, games that could’ve gone either way because both teams had a good chance to win.
The Rams were 0-4 in such games, the worst record of any team in the league. Had those “coin-flip games,” as writer Ty Schalter calls them, been reversed, the Rams would’ve finished the year 13-3.
If only, right?
It’s easy to look back on the year and statistics such as that one and say there are a million “what-if” scenarios that could’ve helped the Rams or countless other teams. But coin-flip games are ones that don’t entirely come down to luck. Quarterback play is a big factor, as is special teams (Greg Zuerlein missed a game-winner against the Seahawks) and clock management.
On the other side of the coin, no pun intended, the 49ers and Seahawks were both excellent in close games. The Seahawks were 5-1 in coin-flip games, while the 49ers were a whopping 7-3. Reverse those records and Seattle finishes 7-9, while the 49ers go 9-7 with the Rams winning the division at 13-3.
Again: If only, right?
The Rams must be better in close games next season if they want to get back to the playoffs. Going 0-4 in such games is unacceptable, especially for a team led by Jared Goff, Sean McVay, Todd Gurley and a trio of talented receivers.
[vertical-gallery id=627791]