The Cleveland Indians (19-12) visit the St. Louis Cardinals (11-11) for a three-game series on Friday. The first pitch is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. We analyze the Indians-Cardinals betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Indians at Cardinals: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Triston McKenzie vs. RHP Daniel Ponce de Leon
McKenzie made his major league debut, on Aug. 22, in a 6-1 win against the Detroit Tigers. It was a quality start for McKenzie, who threw 6 innings, struck out 10, and only allowed 1 earned run in the outing.
- In four seasons in the minor leagues, McKenzie had a 27-16 record with a 2.66 ERA, .99 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9.
Ponce de Leon in 2020: 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 12.8 K/9 and 7.5 BB/9 in 12 IP over 3 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last start: No-decision in a 6-2 win versus the Cincinnati Reds. He pitched 4 2/3 IP with 3 H, 2 ER, 2 K and 4 BB.
- Ponce de Leon has just 24 starts and 44 appearances in his three years in the MLB. He’s only 1-6 with a career 3.56 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
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Indians at Cardinals: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Cardinals
- C Matt Wieters (toe) out
- RP Ryan Helsley (COVID-19) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Indians at Cardinals: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:45 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Cardinals 4, Indians 3
Moneyline (ML)
The Indians (-134) are coming off back-to-back wins over AL Central-rival Minnesota Twins and have won seven of their previous 10 games. The Cardinals (+120) dropped both legs of a seven-inning doubleheader to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday.
McKenzie was dynamite in his debut but should be humbled a bit against a good Cardinals lineup yet to find its groove. Cleveland has been a strong road team so far this season (10-5 record), but St. Louis is better at home (7-5 record).
More importantly, Ponce de Leon’s home/road splits are night and day. He has a lower ERA by two-plus runs and three-plus K/9 per game when pitching in St. Louis. Both teams have a top-notch pitching staff and below-average hitting.
I am taking the value and the home team on a toss-up matchup. BET CARDINALS (+120). New to sports betting? A $100 bet on Cardinals (+120) will earn a profit of $120 if St. Louis beats Cleveland.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS ON THE RUN LINE. The gambler in me hates laying excessive vig when taking a run line, so the Cardinals +1.5 (-139) doesn’t work. Cleveland’s pitching staff is too good, and St. Louis is too average for me to take the Cardinals on the alternate run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
There isn’t much history between these two teams, but the Under is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings, and the Indians have the highest percentage of Unders in the MLB. Both squads on their pitching staffs, and this game plays Under in most simulations.
However, I am going to PASS THE TOTAL because Ponce de Leon has been inconsistent in his young career and McKenzie is only making his second major-league start.
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