The Cleveland Indians (46-43) wrap up their three-game set with the Oakland Athletics (53-41) Sunday with a 4:07 p.m. ET first pitch at Oakland Coliseum. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Indians vs. Athletics odds with MLB picks and predictions.
This is the rubber match of the set as Oakland won the first game Friday 5-4 but Cleveland evened the series Saturday with a 3-2 victory.
Season series: Tied 1-1.
RHP Zach Plesac is Cleveland’s projected starter. Plesac is 4-3 with a 4.31 ERA (62 2/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 over 11 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 4 K in Cleveland’s 7-4 victory over the Kansas City Royals July 8.
- 2021 road splits: 3-2 with a 4.94 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.28 WHIP and 1.6 K/BB rate in five starts.
RHP Chris Bassitt is Oakland’s projected starter. Bassitt is 10-2 with a 3.28 ERA (118 IP, 43 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 over 19 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 4-1, with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 3 K Sunday at the Texas Rangers.
- 2021 home splits: 4-2 with a 2.55 ERA (53 IP, 15 ER), 0.93 WHIP and 4.5 K/BB in eight starts.
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Indians at Athletics odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Indians +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Athletics -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-145) | Athletics -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Indians 4, Athletics 2
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Indians (+135) because I’m going to bet Cleveland’s First 5 Innings run line. My buy-price on is “Indians (+145)” or greater so I’ll abstain from betting their money line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the INDIANS +0.5 (-110) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because Oakland’s lineup has struggled a tad this month and a suspect “line freeze” in the betting market.
For instance, the Athletics rank 26th in wRC+, 28th in wOBA, 25th in BB/K rate and 18th in hard-hit rate in July so I like Plesac to at least keep this one close and be better in his second outing back from injury.
Furthermore, in both the money and run lines, Oakland is getting at least 80% of the action in each betting market but neither line has budged from the opener.
This gives me the impression that the House would like more pro-Athletics money and the last thing we want to do is play into the House’s hands.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) for a half unit because of Oakland’s previously noted hitting slump, Bassitt has been dominant at home this year and the presumed “sharp” side of the market is betting the Under.
According to Pregame.com, more than 70% of the cash bet on the total is on the Under whereas a slight majority of the bets placed are on the Over.
It’s typically wiser in sports betting to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public and the disagreement between the “wiseguy” and “average Joe” explains why the Under is juiced up to -115.
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