The Oakland Athletics (52-40) open a three-game set with the Cleveland Indians (45-42) Friday at Oakland Coliseum. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Indians vs. Athletics odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 0-0.
RHP Eli Morgan is on the bump for the Indians. Morgan is 1-3 with an 8.44 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 across five starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 3 K July 3 vs. the Houston Astros.
- 2021 road splits: 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA (5 IP, 4 ER), 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K in one start.
RHP Chris Bassitt is Oakland’s projected starter. Bassitt is 10-2 with a 3.28 ERA (118 IP, 43 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 over 19 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 4-1, with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 3 K Sunday at the Texas Rangers.
- 2021 home splits: 4-2 with a 2.55 ERA (53 IP, 15 ER), 0.93 WHIP and 4.5 K/BB in eight starts.
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Indians at Athletics odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Indians +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Athletics -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-115) | Athletics -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Athletics 6, Indians 1
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the ATHLETICS (-225) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because I prefer playing Oakland on the run line for even money and Bassitt is the far better starting pitcher but Cleveland has the much better bullpen.
However, while the Indians beat up on bad teams (30-17 vs. teams with a sub-.500 record) they are terrible against good teams (15-25 vs. teams with a winning record).
Also, Cleveland has a losing record on the road and is just 5-9 against AL West teams while Oakland has been dominant vs. AL Central teams (12-2 record) and is 27-22 at home this season.
But, Bassitt is a sleeper AL Cy Young contender and the Athletics are 14-5 in games Bassitt starts while Morgan is a rookie still figuring out the big leagues.
If you are going to bet Oakland’s money line I’d recommend just betting 1 unit on the ATHLETICS (-225) FIRST 5 INNINGS. For example, if your standard wager is $100 then I’d just risk that to earn a $44 profit.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Even though Oakland has a losing ATS record as a home favorite and Cleveland has a winning ATS record as a road underdog, I’d still lay it with the ATHLETICS -1.5 (-105) because they have such an overwhelming edge in the starting pitching matchup.
I’m confident Oakland’s lineup can do some damage to Morgan and Cleveland’s lineup will continue its struggles on the road against Bassitt. The Indians’ batters rank in the bottom 10 on the road in wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and hard-hit rate.
Again, I’d only bet Oakland’s money line or run line. However, for me, this is a good spot to BET 1 unit on the ATHLETICS -1.5 (-105).
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 8 (-105) because Bassitt has pitched pretty well at home throughout his career, but Oakland has played more to the Over at home and Cleveland has played more to the Over on the road.
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