The Cleveland Indians (71-74) and New York Yankees (83-65) continue their three-game series Saturday at Yankee Stadium with the first pitch scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Indians vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York pelted Cleveland 8-0 in the series opener as Yankees LF Joey Gallo homered twice, and RHP Corey Kluber pitched six scoreless innings.
Season series: Yankees lead 4-1.
RHP Aaron Civale is Cleveland’s projected starter. Civale is 10-3 with a 3.76 ERA (105 1/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 over 17 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 11-1, with 3 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 3 K Sunday against the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Civale got a no-decision April 22 in Cleveland’s 6-3 home loss to New York with a stat line of 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 6 K.
- vs. Yankees on the current roster: 3.32 FIP with a .306 batting average, .344 wOBA, .334 expected slugging percentage, 17.1 K% and 85.1 mph exit velocity in 41 plate appearances.
RHP Luis Gil makes his sixth MLB start for the Yankees. Gil is 1-0 with a 2.88 ERA (25 IP, 8 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in his rookie season.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 8 K in New York’s 6-5 win over the Minnesota Twins Monday.
Indians at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Indians +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Yankees -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-135) | Yankees -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Prediction
Yankees 5, Indians 2
Money line (ML)
PASS despite giving New York the edge in this spot because the Yankees (-190) is too expensive considering they have just a 56.5% winning rate as a home favorite (39-30 overall), but the implied win probability of New York’s money line is 65.5%. Essentially, the math doesn’t back up laying it with the Yankees (-190).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the YANKEES -1.5 (+110) for a tiny wager only because there has been “sharp line movement” in the Indians’ direction. This game opened with Cleveland’s consensus run line being priced at roughly -112 but has been bet up.
However, nine of the Indians’ previous 10 losses have been by at least three runs, which makes sense when you look at how their bullpen is performing.
In September, Cleveland’s relief pitching has the third-worst WAR, second-worst home run per nine-inning rate and the second-worst hard-hit rate.
I’m willing to sprinkle on New York’s money line in hopes of its lineup full of mashers can go yard a couple of times against Cleveland’s bullpen to put this game out of reach.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 9.5 (-120) for 1 unit because both lineups have really struggled this month and New York is 27-39-3 O/U as a home favorite.
For instance, Cleveland’s lineup ranks dead-last this month in wRC+, WAR and wOBA while the Yankees batters are in the bottom-10 in each of those metrics this month as well.
Furthermore, we have some “reverse line movement” in the Under’s direction. According to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the action is on the Over, but the Under is the more expensive side. That suggests oddsmakers are enticing more action on the Over, and you don’t want to play into the House’s hand.
Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams
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