The New York Yankees (82-65) host the Cleveland Indians (71-73) on Friday for the start of their three-game series at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Indians vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York had its three-game winning streak snapped against the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday in their series finale. Meanwhile, Cleveland won two of three in its series against the Minnesota Twins but have won only three of its last 10 games.
Season series: Yankees lead 3-1.
RHP Zach Plesac is Cleveland’s projected starter. Plesac is 10-5 with a 4.45 ERA (125 1/3 IP, 62 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 22 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 3-0, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 3 K Saturday vs. the Milwaukee Brewers.
- 2021 road splits: 7-3 with a 4.74 ERA (62 2/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.21 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB in 11 starts.
RHP Corey Kluber is set for his 14th start for the Yankees. Kluber is 4-3 with a 4.02 ERA (65 IP, 29 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No decision with 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K in 8-7 victory at the New York Mets on Saturday.
- 2021 home splits: 1-2 with a 2.79 ERA (29 IP, 9 ER), 1.31 WHIP and 1.9 K/BB in six starts.
Indians at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Friday at 12:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Indians +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Yankees -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-130) | Yankees -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Yankees 4, Indians 3
Money line (ML)
PASS even though New York should win. The Yankees (-200) is far too expensive considering how inconsistent, at best, their hitting has been.
New York split its previous two games with Baltimore but they only scored four and two runs in those contests. The Yankees are 4-6 in their last 10 games and 7-13 in the last 20. Does that sound like a team you should lay -200 with?
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
LEAN to the INDIANS +1.5 (-130) because they are 31-17 ATS as a road underdog while the Yankees are 26-42 as a home favorite.
Just listing these records lacks context, obviously, but essentially New York’s hitting and relief pitching just aren’t reliable. The Yankees have the seventh-most blown saves in the majors and we’ve seen teams continuously sneak in the backdoor or steal a game late against New York.
The reasons for the lean are Plesac’s rough advanced pitching numbers against active Yankees batters, and he gave up 20 home runs in his first 19 starts.
Over/Under (O/U)
LEAN to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) only because we are getting to the party late since the Indians-Yankees opened with a 10-run total but has been moved down thanks to the wiseguys.
This is a “pros vs. joes” game: Nearly 90% of the cash is on the Under while 53% of the bets placed are on the Over, according to Pregame.com. Typically, it’s profitable in sports betting to follow the money when it’s opposite of the public.
The logic behind this being a lower-scoring game is New York’s hitting hiccups and Kluber being dialed in to face his former team. This start has to mean something to Kluber after he played for Cleveland from 2011-19, won two Cy Young Awards and an AL pennant with the Indians in 2016.
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