The Cleveland Indians (57-59) and Minnesota Twins (52-66) tangle Monday in the opener of a three-game series at Target Field. First pitch is slated for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Indians vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Cal Quantrill is the projected starting pitcher for the Indians. He is 3-2 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9 in 97 2/3 IP across 14 starts and 18 relief appearances.
- Twins batters own a small-sample .790 aggregate OPS against Quantrill.
- Has posted a 1.25 ERA over his last six games. However, that stretch has been artificially buoyed by a .228 batting average on balls in play and 3.7% home run/fly ball rate.
- Statcast expected ERA (based on quality of contact) is more than a run higher than his surface ERA.
RHP Griffin Jax is the projected starter for the Twins. He is 3-1 with a 5.45 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9 in38 IP across five starts and four relief appearances.
- Clocked a season-high 10 K in his start Tuesday against the Chicago White Sox.
- Owns a 2.66 ERA over his last four starts despite facing the White Sox twice and Houston Astros once.
- Allowed 3 runs on 3 hits and 2 BB in 4 1/3 IP June 25 against the Indians.
Indians at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Indians +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Twins -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-200) | Twins -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Prediction
Twins 5, Indians 4
Money line (ML)
The Indians are 9-14 with a 4.93 ERA over their last 23 games. Despite an 11-0 win against the Detroit Tigers Sunday – and a near-no-hitter by RHP Triston McKenzie – Cleveland is just 7-14 on the road since June 25. That stretch started with back-to-back losses at Minnesota.
The Twins are 8-4 over their last 12 games, all of which were against playoff-caliber teams. Minnesota has logged an improved 4.17 ERA over that span and has continued to perform as a top-third offensive club.
Quantrill’s recent stretch has him too far out over his skis and Jax’s recent starts against top offenses have been encouraging. BACK THE TWINS (-130).
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Avoid the juice-filled run line and figure the true odds on both sides as being buried in the deep middle. PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
Parsing this one brings out signals that point both ways. Ultimately, some slight pull toward Twins pitching and a fade of Cleveland’s offense makes for some minimal value on the UNDER 9.5 (-110) on a night with a forecast of a 12 mph wind hurting balls hit to right field.
For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]