Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Indians (57-59) and Minnesota Twins (52-66) tangle Monday in the opener of a three-game series at Target Field. First pitch is slated for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Indians vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Cal Quantrill is the projected starting pitcher for the Indians. He is 3-2 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9 in 97 2/3 IP across 14 starts and 18 relief appearances.

  • Twins batters own a small-sample .790 aggregate OPS against Quantrill.
  • Has posted a 1.25 ERA over his last six games. However, that stretch has been artificially buoyed by a .228 batting average on balls in play and 3.7% home run/fly ball rate.
  • Statcast expected ERA (based on quality of contact) is more than a run higher than his surface ERA.

RHP Griffin Jax is the projected starter for the Twins. He is 3-1 with a 5.45 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9 in38 IP across five starts and four relief appearances.

  • Clocked a season-high 10 K in his start Tuesday against the Chicago White Sox.
  • Owns a 2.66 ERA over his last four starts despite facing the White Sox twice and Houston Astros once.
  • Allowed 3 runs on 3 hits and 2 BB in 4 1/3 IP June 25 against the Indians.

Indians at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Indians +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Twins -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-200) | Twins -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Twins 5, Indians 4

Money line (ML)

The Indians are 9-14 with a 4.93 ERA over their last 23 games. Despite an 11-0 win against the Detroit Tigers Sunday – and a near-no-hitter by RHP Triston McKenzie – Cleveland is just 7-14 on the road since June 25. That stretch started with back-to-back losses at Minnesota.

The Twins are 8-4 over their last 12 games, all of which were against playoff-caliber teams. Minnesota has logged an improved 4.17 ERA over that span and has continued to perform as a top-third offensive club.

Quantrill’s recent stretch has him too far out over his skis and Jax’s recent starts against top offenses have been encouraging. BACK THE TWINS (-130).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Avoid the juice-filled run line and figure the true odds on both sides as being buried in the deep middle. PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Parsing this one brings out signals that point both ways. Ultimately, some slight pull toward Twins pitching and a fade of Cleveland’s offense makes for some minimal value on the UNDER 9.5 (-110) on a night with a forecast of a 12 mph wind hurting balls hit to right field.

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