The Cleveland Indians (26-22) play the Chicago Cubs (29-20) in the finale of a two-game series Wednesday in Wrigley Field at 8:15 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Indians-Cubs MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Chicago leads 1-0.
Indians at Cubs: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Aaron Civale vs. LHP Jon Lester
Civale: 3-5 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 58 IP over 9 starts.
- Last start: Loss (11-1), with 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 7 K and 1 BB against the Kansas City Royals Thursday.
Lester: 2-2 with a 5.05 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 46 ⅓ IP over 9 GS.
- Last start: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 8 K and 2 BB in a 1-0 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Friday.
- Lester had one start vs. Cleveland in 2020: Win (7-1), with 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 K and 2 BB on Aug. 11.
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Indians at Cubs: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Indians
- 2B Cesar Hernandez (paternity list) out
Cubs
- OF Cameron Maybin (illness) probable
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Indians at Cubs: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Cubs 6, Indians 1
Money line (ML)
The Cubs (-106) have won three straight games, and four out of five, including a 6-5 win Tuesday over the Indians (-106). Cleveland is free-falling from AL Central contention—now six games back and in third place—and are in the midst of a seven-game losing streak.
Civale has been a little spotty in recent starts: He’s 1-2 with a 5.50 ERA and has given up 20 hits in 18 innings pitched over his last three starts. These appearances all came against less productive lineups than Chicago’s. Chicago hits 26 points higher and averages close to a full run more scored per game vs. right-handed pitchers.
Lester has good numbers against the current Indians lineup and holds a 1.73 ERA over his last five starts vs. Cleveland. TAKE CUBS.
New to sports betting? A $106 bet on the Cubs (-106) returns a $100 profit if they win.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Chicago’s insurance run line is too expensive but the alternate line (Cubs -1.5, +185) is juicy. We are getting a good price because Cleveland has a good RL record as a road team (15-10) and Chicago is just 12-15 RL at Wrigley Field.
Also, the Indians -1.5 (+145) have one of the best pitching staffs in the majors and the Cubs are a below-average hitting team themselves. However, Cleveland’s lineup is bad and if it gets behind, it’s unlikely it will rally.
It’s a value play so I’d only put $25 on Cubs -1.5 (+185) to collect a $46.25 profit if Chicago wins by two or more runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS. Both lineups are bad so I lean Under 8.5 (-110), but with my handicap above, we are pulling for a Cubs blowout. Don’t want to sweat the total, too.
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