The Cleveland Indians (67-65) meet the Boston Red Sox (78-59) Saturday for the second game of their three-game series at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Indians vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Boston beat Cleveland in the season opener Friday 8-5 and keyed the victory with a 5-run 7th-inning rally.
Season series: Red Sox lead 3-1.
RHP Eli Morgan gets the nod for the Indians. Morgan is 2-6 with a 5.98 ERA (61 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 across 13 starts in his rookie season.
- Last outing: No-decision in 3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Cleveland’s 7-5 victory over Boston Sunday.
- 2021 road splits: 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA (27 IP, 12 ER), 0.96 WHIP and 9.3 K/BB in five starts.
RHP Tanner Houck is on the mound for the Red Sox. Houck is 0-3 with a 3.63 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in nine starts and two relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 1 H, 4 BB and 3 K in Boston’s 7-5 loss to Cleveland Sunday.
- 2021 home splits: 0-3 with a 3.77 ERA (28 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.29 WHIP and 8.2 K/BB in six starts and one bullpen outing.
Indians at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:08 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Indians +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Red Sox -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-117) | Red Sox -1.5 (-103)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Prediction
Indians 5, Red Sox 3
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Indians (+170) because I’m going to throw a little change at Cleveland’s run line.
Morgan has been more effective on the road than at home this season and the Indians beat the Red Sox last week in this same starting pitcher’s duel.
Cleveland’s lineup has been raking over the past two weeks; the Indians have ranked third in wRC+, fourth in WAR and second in wOBA over that span.
Maybe I’ll sprinkle on Indians (+170) before the first pitch but, for now, I’ll stick with Cleveland’s run line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET the INDIANS +1.5 (-117) for 1 unit since their lineup has been hitting better than Boston’s recently, the pitching matchup is a toss-up and Cleveland is 27-16 ATS as a road underdog while the Red Sox are 26-29 ATS as a home favorite.
Furthermore, there’s notable “reverse line movement” (RLM) in the betting market as nearly 95% of the cash is on Boston covering but Cleveland’s run line has gone from a -109 consensus number to the current price according to Pregame.com.
It’s a red flag that oddsmakers have reacted to the one-sided pro-Boston action by making the Indians more expensive. It should work the opposite way.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET to the UNDER 9.5 (-122) for 1 unit because there’s also been slight RLM on the total that opened at a flat-10, but has been steamed down despite roughly 70% of the action being on the Over.
My play on the Under is strictly a “contrarian play” against an Over that seems square. Once diving into this handicap, I noticed that both starting pitchers wouldn’t be starting for their ball clubs in September if it weren’t for injuries, both bullpens have struggled after the All-Star Game and each lineup is hitting very well lately. Seems like a sure-fire Over, right?
When I factor in the noticeable RLM to all those Over-friendly angles, I notice that the House is trying to entice more Over money. Let’s get on the same side as the house and BET UNDER 9.5 (-115).
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