The Cleveland Indians (67-64) and Boston Red Sox (77-59) open a three-game set Friday. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Indians vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Indians RHP Cal Quantrill (4-2, 2.93 ERA) makes his 18th start and 36th appearance. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 116 2/3 IP.
- Is 4-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP as a starter.
- Allowed 1 earned run on 6 hits and 2 walks with 6 strikeouts through 7 IP in a no-decision start Saturday against Boston.
- Is 3-0 with a 1.47 ERA over 55 IP across nine starts in the second half of the season. He allowed more than 2 earned runs in an outing just once in that span.
Red Sox RHP Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.71 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 150 1/3 IP.
- Opposed Quantrill Saturday and allowed 2 earned runs on 6 hits with 7 strikeouts over 5 1/3 IP to take a no-decision in Cleveland.
- Has a 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 across 15 starts at Fenway Park.
Indians at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Indians +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Red Sox -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-135) | Red Sox -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Prediction
Boston 4, Cleveland 3
Money line (ML)
The Red Sox are one of the league’s premier hitting teams against right-handed pitching. Boston ranks no worse than seventh in wRC+, wOBA and OPS against righties while Cleveland ranks no better than 19th in any of those categories.
Eovaldi has been lights out at Fenway Park. He has recorded a 0.99 ERA and 0.74 WHIP while tossing at least 7 innings in each of his last five starts at home.
This line is starting to gt up there. If it surpasses -200 the play is probably to just use it in a parlay but for the time being you can BET the RED SOX (-190).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Quantrill allowed more than 2 earned runs just once over his last nine outings, although he’s likely producing numbers a bit over his head as his Statcast expected ERA and his xFIP are more than a full run higher than his surface ERA.
Boston’s bullpen has been absolutely ravaged over the last 30 days and is 20th or worse in SEIRA, xFIP, ERA and K-BB% over that span. Cleveland’s ‘pen isn’t a great deal better – in fact in some instances ranking worse – but I’m just not eager to get behind those metrics and risk seeing things slip away late in the game.
PASS on the run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
I anticipated this number would be lower than it was posted at and instead we’re actually seeing it a little higher in some places.
You can try to wait out a rise to 9 if that’s more your style, but factoring Eovaldi’s success at home (which will hopefully limit bullpen exposure) and a number of members of Boston’s starting lineup sidelined due to COVID-19 related issues I’m “leaning” toward the Under.
Here’s to hoping Quantrill continues to pitch beyond his means Friday. Play the UNDER 8.5 (+105).
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