The Cleveland Guardians (51-49) head to Tropicana Field Sunday for their 3-game series finale with the Tampa Bay Rays (54-47) at 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Tampa evened the series with a 6-4 win Saturday with the standout performances coming from Rays 2B Brandon Lowe and 3B Yandy Diaz, who both hit home runs and each had 2 RBIs.
Season series: Tied 1-1.
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Guardians at Rays projected starters
RHP Bryan Shaw vs. LHP Shane McClanahan
Shaw is 4-2 with a 5.45 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 36 1/3 IP with 1 start and 39 relief appearances.
- Last start: No-decision in Cleveland’s 8-3 win at the Boston Red Sox Tuesday with 2 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
- Tuesday was Shaw’s 1st career start in his 12 big league seasons.
McClanahan is 10-3 with a 1.76 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 in 117 2/3 IP over 19 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Tampa’s 5-3 loss at the Baltimore Orioles with 7 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 7 K.
- McClanahan leads MLB in ERA and WHIP and leads the AL in K/BB rate.
Guardians at Rays odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:18 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Guardians +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Rays -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-125) | Rays -1.5 (+102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Guardians at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 4, Guardians 1
Money line
PASS.
The Rays (-240) are the right side with the favorite to win the AL Cy Young on the bump but Tampa’s ML is far too expensive. McClanahan has 13 consecutive quality starts and is 8-1 over that span with a 1.27 ERA.
But, we’d be getting the worst of the number because sharp action has steamed the Rays from a -180 opening favorite up to the current price, according to Pregame.com.
I’d entertain parlaying Tampa’s ML with another similarly priced line for a better payout since the Rays are 8-2 as home favorites of -150 or greater in McClanahan starts and a plus-20.3% return on investment (ROI).
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Run line/Against the spread
BET a HALF-UNIT on the RAYS -1.5 (+105) because they are 6-4 RL in the circumstances described above with a plus-29.8% ROI.
Furthermore, Cleveland’s lineup ranks 29th in wRC+ (77) and wOBA (.275) and 22nd in BB/K rate (0.36) vs. left-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.
However, I’m going lighter on Tampa’s RL here because the Rays are 15-25 RL as home favorites and the Guardians +1.5 (-125) is 22-14 RL as road underdogs.
Over/Under
BET a QUARTER-UNIT on the UNDER 6.5 (-105) only because this is a sharp total.
That said, Cleveland’s lineup cannot hit left-handed pitching. the Rays are 6-11-2 O/U in McClanahan starts and 3-7 O/U in McClanahan’s home starts as favorites of -150 or greater with a plus-34.1% ROI towards the Under. Also, Tropicana Field is a pitcher-friendly venue and ranks 23rd in park factor.
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