The Cleveland Guardians (46-44) open the 2nd half with a 3-game set vs. the AL Central co-tenant Chicago White Sox (46-46). Friday’s 1st pitch at Guaranteed Rate Field is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Cleveland leads 6-3 with a plus-13 run differential in those meetings.
Cleveland ended the 1st half of its season with a 3-game sweep at home vs. the Detroit Tigers after splitting a 4-game series with the White Sox. The Guardians are 6-4 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.
Chicago is 7-3 SU in the last 10 games, which includes winning 3 of a 4-game series with the AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins entering the All-Star break.
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Guardians at White Sox projected starters
RHP Cal Quantrill vs. RHP Lucas Giolito
Quantrill is 6-5 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 in 100 2/3 IP over 17 starts.
- Last start: Won 10-0 at home Saturday vs. the Tigers with 6 scoreless IP, 4 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 vs. the White Sox: 1-1 with a 5.84 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 17 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 6 K in 2 starts.
Giolito is 6-5 with a 4.69 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 88 1/3 IP across 16 starts.
- Last start: Won 2-1 July 13 at the Guardians with 6 1/3 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 5 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 vs. the Guardians: 2-0 with a 0.68 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 1 ER), 11 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 10 K in 2 starts.
Guardians at White Sox odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:13 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Guardians +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | White Sox -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-160) | White Sox -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Guardians at White Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 5, White Sox 3
Money line
BET GUARDIANS (+130).
There’s “reverse line movement” (RLM) headed toward Cleveland in the betting market despite Quantrill’s terrible road splits and Giolito’s impressive numbers vs. the Guardians in 2022.
Also, the Guardians have a slightly better bullpen than the White Sox (-160) and Cleveland’s lineup is more productive vs. right-handed pitching than Chicago’s.
More than 80% of the money is on the White Sox per Pregame.com but the Chicago’s ML has gone from a -165 opener down to the current number and is as low as -145 on some sportsbooks.
Common sense says oddsmakers would adjust the line according to the market movement so this RLM suggests the House is baiting bettors into taking more pro-White Sox action.
Cleveland’s lineup outranks Chicago’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (107-95), wOBA (.318-.296), ISO (.147-.119) and BB/K rate (0.44-0.30), according to FanGraphs.
BET GUARDIANS (+130).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I’m not confident enough in the Guardians +1.5 (-160) to “sprinkle” on their alternate RL and Cleveland’s preflop RL is too expensive even though the White Sox -1.5 (+130) are 9-23 RL as home favorites.
Over/Under
LEAN towards the UNDER 8.5 (-107) because money is flooding in on the Over.
Also, 4 of the last 5 Guardians-White Sox meetings have gone Under the total and Chicago’s lineup ranks in the bottom of the MLB in several advanced hitting metrics vs. right-handed pitching.
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