The No. 8 seed Cleveland Cavaliers head to the Barclays Center Tuesday to play the No. 7 seed Brooklyn Nets in the first play-in tournament game in the Eastern Conference. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Cavaliers vs. Nets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Cleveland backed into the play-in tournament due to piling injuries to key players after a red-hot start to the season. Post-All-Star break, the Cavs are 9-15 straight up (SU) and 8-15-1 against the spread (ATS) with a minus-2.8 scoring margin
Brooklyn had a chaotic season, to say the least. The Nets had to deal with PG Kyrie Irving’s vaccination status and PF Kevin Durant’s injury woes. Plus, they traded SG James Harden for PG Ben Simmons, who hasn’t played in a game since June 20, 2021, and might not suit up this postseason, but the Nets have the second-shortest odds to win the East.
They are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS versus the Cavs this season with the Over/Under going 2-2.
Cavaliers at Nets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:51 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cavaliers +320 (bet $100 to win $320) | Nets -420 (bet $420 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Cavaliers +8.5 (-115) | Nets -8.5 (-107)
- Over/Under: 228.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Cavaliers at Nets key injuries
Cavaliers
- C Jarrett Allen (finger) out
Nets
- SG Seth Curry (ankle) probable
- PG Ben Simmons (reconditioning) out
[tipico]
Cavaliers at Nets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Nets 115, Cavaliers 111
Money line
PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Cavaliers (+320) because this payout is so fat. I typically will sprinkle on an underdog’s ML when betting it to cover the spread.
However, Durant is at the peak of his powers and has dominated Cleveland this season. KD averaged 28.7 points on 66.0% true shooting (.509/.538/1.000) with a plus-13 net rating in 3 games versus the Cavs this season.
The bottom line is Cleveland has no answer for KD and I cannot get down on the Cavaliers (+320) beating the Nets because KD can single-handedly win this game.
PASS.
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Against the spread
GIMME the CAVALIERS +8.5 (-115).
Brooklyn’s defense isn’t reliable enough to be laying this many points. Even if Brooklyn gets out to a big early lead, a backdoor cover is always a possibility since the Nets rank 20th in defensive rating.
Brooklyn has underperformed expectations in this spot all season long. Brooklyn is the league’s worst covering team as a home favorite at 5-26-1 (minus-7.8 ATS margin). The Nets are also 3-9 ATS as 7.5- to 9.5-point favorites and 6-14-1 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record.
Furthermore, a vast majority of the cash and action is on the Nets, according to Tipico Sportsbook, so we can fade a lopsided market and get on the same side as the House.
The two recently faced off Friday in a seesaw battle, which was a lot closer than the final score indicates. Brooklyn won 118-107 but Cleveland led at the end of the third quarter and outperformed the host Nets in the three of the “four factors.”
If the Cavs can finish off defensive possessions by cleaning the glass, they will keep this close.
CLEVELAND +8.5 (-115) is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 228.5 (-112) because we’re seeing reverse-line movement heading south of the total and there are a bunch of situational trends that suggest this will be a low-scoring game.
According to Pregame.com, more than three-fourths of the action is on the Over, but the total has been lowered from a 230.5-point look-ahead total to the current number. It’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
Finally, Cleveland is 11-16 O/U as a road underdog, Brooklyn is 12-20 O/U as a home favorite and these teams are a combined 36-44 O/U versus opponents with a winning record.
It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 228.5 (-112) since I just mentioned how unreliable Brooklyn’s defense can be.
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