The Cleveland Cavaliers (19-12) travel to the Big Peach for a 7:30 p.m. ET game against the Atlanta Hawks (14-15) at State Farm Arena. Below, we look at the Cavaliers vs. Hawks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Cleveland has won six consecutive games and has covered 14 straight with the latest being a 119-90 beatdown of an undermanned Milwaukee Bucks last night.
Over the past two weeks, the Cavs are 6-2 straight-up (SU), 8-0 ATS and 3-5 O/U with the best non-garbage time efficiency differential (plus-17.0 points per 100 possessions), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Atlanta got crushed Friday by the Denver Nuggets 133-115 as 3.5-point home favorites. The Hawks are 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS and 4-2 O/U with the 17th-ranked net rating (minus-2.2 points per 100 possessions) in the last 14 days per CTG.
The Cavs upset the Hawks 101-95 as 8-point home underdogs in their first meeting of the season Oct. 23 and the Under cashed on the 223.5-point total.
Cavaliers at Hawks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cavaliers +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Hawks -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Cavaliers +2.5 (-107) | Hawks -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 220.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Cavaliers at Hawks key injuries
Cavaliers
- PF Evan Mobley (health and safety protocols) out
- SF Isaac Okoro (health and safety protocols) out
Hawks
- SG Bogdan Bogdanovic (ankle) questionable
- PG Trae Young (health and safety protocols) out
- SG De’Andre Hunter (wrist) out
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Cavaliers at Hawks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Cavaliers 112, Hawks 104
Money line
“LEAN” to the CAVALIERS (+120) just because I think Cleveland plus the points has slightly better value. But, I’ll “sprinkle” on the underdog’s money line in this spot.
Trae Young is the centerpiece of Atlanta’s offense and grades in the 86th percentile in non-garbage time on/off net rating and 100th percentile in offensive efficiency at plus-16.7 points per 100 possessions (CTG).
Furthermore, the Cavs have the second-best non-garbage time net rating on the road (plus-7.2 points per 100 possessions) and the best spread differential (plus-12.4) per CTG. Also, Cleveland’s second-best defensive efficiency should have an easier team vs. Atlanta’s offense sans Trae.
I’d actually argue that the “wrong team is favored”. We’re getting value solely based on the Cavs playing the second of a back-to-back and the gambler’s fallacy of “Cleveland can’t cover its 15th straight, right?”
However, I still prefer Cleveland getting points, but I’ll “LEAN” to the CAVALIERS (+120) for a quarter-unit.
Against the spread
Definitely BET the CAVALIERS +2.5 (-107) heavier than, or instead of, Cleveland’s money line. Especially if you’re betting earlier in the day, which I’d advise against.
The NBA-COVID outbreak has been the league’s main storyline this week, and I propose waiting until you actually see who’s on the floor for each team before making a wager.
That said, I think we’ll get line value with the CAVALIERS +2.5 (-107) even if Bogdanovic plays because Cleveland is ballin’ lately.
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 220.5 (-112) because the Under has cashed in five consecutive Cavaliers-Hawks meetings and Atlanta is missing its offensive focal point. Plus, as previously mentioned, Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the NBA and the Cavs are 11-20 O/U this season.
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