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Claudia Gadelha and Alexa Grasso will tangle at UFC 246 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nev., in a woman’s strawweight bout on the pay-per-view card Saturday night.
Gadelha (17-4) is one inch shorter than her counterpart and is outreached by 2.5 inches, 66-63.5. However, none of that will matter if she is able to get Grasso to the ground. That’s Gadelha’s game, as ‘Claudinha’ is a master of jiu-jitsu and dominates with a 42.19-percent significant strike accuracy, while also rolling up an amazing 47.14-percent takedown accuracy. Since here title-bout loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk at the TUF 23 finale, she is 4-2. She recorded a first-round submission against Karolina Kowalkiewicz at UFC 212, and even when she isn’t able to finish, her tremendous takedown ability seems to wow the judges and get her style points which help during decisions.
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Grasso (11-3) is a striker who is still trying to find her sea legs since moving to the UFC. She debuted with a win over Heather Clark at UFC Fight Night on Nov. 5, 2016, before a loss to Felice Herrig Feb. 4, 2017. A win over Randa Markos had her back on track, but a submission loss to Tatiana Suarez was a stunner at UFC Fight Night on May 19, 2018, and should serve as a cautionary tale here. She beat Kowalkiewicz, a common opponent for the two in this bout, before losing last time out to Carla Esparza at UFC Fight Night on Sept. 21, 2019.
Per BetMGM, Gadelha (-121) is the slight favorite in this one over Grasso (-110). The oddsmakers also show a heavy lean to the match going the distance (three rounds), with odds there being set at -304 for – and the odds to not go a full three rounds at +225.
Are you new to sports betting? A $10 wager on Gadelha to win returns $8.30 in profit. A bet on Grasso at -110 returns a profit of $9.10 with a victory.
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- UFC 246 viewing guide: Where and where to watch
The difference in my eyes here is Gadelha’s outstanding takedown ability, and her potential to finish on the ground. That recent submission loss by Grasso sticks out like a sore thumb, too. Taking a flier on Gadelha to win by submission (+550) looks awfully tasty, and is at the very least worth a small-unit bet. Pair that with a 2-way win by Gadelha (-121), with the fight not going three full rounds for a nice payday at (+225), and this fight could be quite lucrative.
If you want some action on this mixed martial arts bout, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com.
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