Clark’s ‘Caps: NBA playoff first-round series bets

The real NBA season starts Saturday, May 22nd with the first-round of the 2020-21 NBA playoffs tipping off. Below, we’ll highlight the top NBA series predictions.

Seven of the eight first-round playoff matchups are set with the only holdout being the 1 vs. 8 Western Conference series awaiting the outcome of the final play-in game between the 8-seed Golden State Warriors and 9-seed Memphis Grizzlies.

MVP frontrunner Nikola Jokic and the 4-seed Denver Nuggets (+100) play the 5-seed Portland Trail Blazers (-120) in a rematch of their 2018-19 Western Conference Semifinals series the Blazers won 4-3.

LeBron James and the 7-seed Los Angeles Lakers (-150) begin their title defense against the 2-seed Phoenix Suns led by eventual Hall of Famer Chris Paul (+125) in his first season in the Valley of the Sun.

The 4-seed New York Knicks (+100) led by first-year head coach Tom Thibodeau has a home-court advantage vs. the 5-seed Atlanta Hawks (-120) in their first playoff series since 2014.

NBA first-round series predictions

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:40 p.m. ET.

Denver Nuggets (+100) vs. Portland Trail Blazers

This series betting opened with the Nuggets being slight favorites, but all the pro-Blazers money has moved them to the favorites.

But, my thing is this could be an overreaction to Denver’s injury issues and Portland’s whooping it put on the Nuggets in the regular-season finale.

First of all, since Nuggets PG Jamal Murray suffered a season-ending torn ACL April 12, Denver has still been an elite team.

For instance, the Nuggets are 13-6 since April 12 with the ninth-best in net points per 100 possessions and the eighth-best spread differential, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. And one of those victories came against Portland (106-105) on April 21.

Also, people are very much focused on the fact that Denver’s loss of Murray gives Portland a sizable edge in the backcourt but skipping over the Nuggets’ edge in the frontcourt.

Yes, Jokic is going to be the MVP, but Denver has a plethora of bigs that are going to keep Portland out of the paint and control the glass.

Let’s not forget Denver’s sneaky awesome trade deadline pickup of PF Aaron Gordon, and also have quality backup bigs like JaVale McGee, JaMychal Green and Paul Millsap.

Denver’s cluster of quality bigs is the reason it allows the fewest second-chance points per game and the sixth-fewest paint points per game.

Plus, these bigs take rebounding and defensive pressure off Jokic’s shoulders, allowing him to focus on playmaking and running the offense, which is more important given the loss of Murray.

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Also, the Blazers are just 9-15 overall vs. teams in the top-10 of net efficiency with the 17th-ranked net points per 100 possessions and the 26th-ranked spread differential (according to CleaningTheGlass.com).

In addition, Portland is bad vs. teams in the top-10 of offensive efficiency. Denver has its way with bad defenses, and the Blazers have the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA.

For example, the Blazers are 7-16 overall vs. teams in the top-10 of offensive efficiency with the 22nd-ranked net points per 100 possessions and the Nuggets are 18-9 overall with plus-6.1 points per 100 possessions vs. teams in the bottom-10 of defensive efficiency (CleaningTheGlass.com).

Finally, I put zero stock into the Blazers’ 132-116 win over the Nuggets on the final day of the season. Portland was trying to clinch a playoff berth and avoid the play-in tournament while Denver sat its starters in the second half.

The overemphasizing of this game, and Murray’s injury has made the wrong team favored. I’m fading the market with the NUGGETS (+100) TO WIN THE SERIES.

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Los Angeles Lakers (-150) vs. Phoenix Suns

This is another scenario where the market has hammered Phoenix’s series price so much so that the value is with L.A. since this series opened with L.A. laying as much as -300 at some books.

For me, this is a pretty simple handicap: If LeBron is healthy enough to play this entire series then there’s no way the Lakers should only be -150 favorites in this series.

LeBron’s teams have made the postseason 14 times in his previous 17 seasons and they are 14-0 in the first round of the playoffs. In fact, LeBron’s teams have an absurd 56-11 record in first-round playoff games.

And the biggest concern for Phoenix heading into the postseason is how it’s going to defend the elite wings in the playoffs. It’s a big ask of Suns SF Mikal Bridges to check LeBron in his first-ever playoff appearance.

LeBron brutalized the Suns in his only game against them this season; he scored 38 points on 72.5% true shooting (.667/.375/.600) with 5 rebounds, 6 assists and a 133 offensive rating.

On top of that, L.A. also has the second-best player in this series in Anthony Davis who was seventh last season’s playoffs in points per game and first win shares per 48.

In the previous Suns-Lakers meeting May 9, AD eviscerated Phoenix with 42 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals and 3 blocks in L.A.’s 123-110 victory.

Lastly, it typically takes newly formed teams years to gel, and generally, there are prerequisite postseason growing pains.

Frankly, since CP3 doesn’t have much playoff success to speak to, I’m okay fading Phoenix especially when the defending champs are the opponent. GIMME the LAKERS (-150) to win the series.

New York Knicks (+100) vs. Atlanta Hawks

I’m sold on the Knicks at even money to win this series since they have the better coach, the best player in the series and homecourt advantage.

Hawks head coach Nate McMillan would have a legitimate Coach of the Year case if he hadn’t taken over midseason, but Thibodeau is a finalist for that award and has advanced deeper in the playoffs as a head coach while with the Chicago Bulls than McMillan ever has.

Typically, these tightly contested series are swung by which team has the best player and there’s no question that Most Improved Player of the Year favorite Julius Randle is the best player entering this series.

In the three Hawks-Knicks meetings this season, Randle is averaging 37.3 points per game on 73.2% true shooting (.581/.500/.818), 12.3 rebounds and 6.7 assists per game with a 132 offensive rating (Randle’s highest vs. any opponent this season). Simply put, Atlanta has no answer for Randle.

This brings us to the Hawks’ perceived biggest edge in this series, which is their ability to get to the foul line. Atlanta, and in particular its leading scorer Trae Young, thrives at getting to the charity stripe, leading the NBA in FTA/FG rate.

However, the Hawks might not get the same calls they did in the regular season because refs typically let teams play more physically in the postseason.

Also, COVID restrictions are loosening, which means there are going to be more fans at these games than in the previous 15 months.

Since New York has the homecourt advantage and Madison Square Garden is going to be rocking because the Knicks snapped their playoff drought I see them getting more help from the refs than the Hawks.

Either way, neither team has really any playoff experience and New York having an extra home game is reason enough to BET the KNICKS (+100) to advance.

Want some action on these props? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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