Thursday’s NBA slate features the first rematch of the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers since last season’s Western Conference Finals meeting and an anticipated point guard dual when Steph Curry’s Golden State Warriors playing Luka Doncic’s Dallas Mavericks. Here are a few NBA player prop bet predictions to consider for Thursday’s NBA schedule.
Thursday’s NBA player prop bet predictions
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
Lakers PF Anthony Davis OVER 23.5 points (-115)
AD would be the first one to tell you he’s not playing as well as he hoped to start this season but he dominates the Nuggets. Davis has scored at least 25 points in each of his previous 11 games against Denver (including last season’s WCF) and he averaged 29.3 points on 54.4% shooting in four regular-season games against the Nuggets last season.
I think Davis has extraordinary regular-season motivation entering Thursday’s game. Nuggets C Nikola Jokic is a frontrunner in the MVP discussion, which is a spot AD was projected to occupy, but he hasn’t played at an MVP-caliber to this point.
Granted, there’s no home crowd, but I expect Davis to ball out with Nuggets-Lakers being a nationally televised game in Los Angeles.
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Philadelphia 76ers PG Ben Simmons OVER 16.5 assists+rebounds (-140)
It’s widely known that Simmons fills up the box score but isn’t a dynamic scorer. This isn’t a sharp take; Simmons has three triple-doubles this season and has the sixth-most triple-doubles of any active player in the NBA (31).
He has combined for at least 17 rebounds and assists in three of his five career games vs. the Portland Trail Blazers. Like Davis above, Simmons is a former No. 1 overall pick who has the motivation of getting less hype currently than Trail Blazers PG Damian Lillard.
While no one can take away from what Lillard does offensively, Dame Time clocks out on defense. Portland is in the bottom-10 in essentially every opposing point guard per game offensive metric.
Mavericks PF Kristaps Porzingis OVER 20.5 points (-115)
This is yet another attempt to pick off low-hanging fruit in the player prop market because the Warriors are down two bigs. Cs James Wiseman and Kevon Looney are both out with injury, which makes PF Draymond Green the starting center.
Also, this is a buy-low spot for Porzingis, who’s shooting a career-low from behind the arc (29.0%) and has scored fewer than 20 points in four of his previous five games. Porzingis scored 24 points last night against a sneaky good Atlanta Hawks defense and his 20 field-goal attempts were a season-high.
Lastly, the Mavericks’ disappointing start to the season should ensure their motivation is high and since Porzingis isn’t knocking down outside shots, he’s a good bet to take his aggression out on Golden State’s questionable interior defense.
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Also see:
- Sixers impressed by Simmons, Embiid on defense after the win (Sixers Wire)
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: Lineups, injury reports and broadcast info for Thursday (LeBron Wire)
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