Thursday in the Association features a rematch of last season’s thrilling seven-game Eastern Conference Semifinals series between the Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors and a meeting between MVP contenders with Joel Embiid’s Philadelphia 76ers facing Damian Lillard’s Portland Trail Blazers. Here are a few NBA player prop predictions to consider Thursday.
Thursday’s NBA player prop bet predictions
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET.
Indiana Pacers PG Malcolm Brogdon OVER 20.5 points (-115)
The Central Division rival Indiana Pacers and Detroit Pistons clash for the first time since Dec. 2019. This is a get-right spot for Brogdon, who has struggled this month.
After lighting it up in January, Brogdon’s shooting percentages have fallen to 37.6% from the field and 28.0% from behind the arc with a 93 offensive rating through five games in February.
We are looking for Brogdon to bounce back because Detroit has one of the worst defensive backcourts in the Association and it’s particularly bad against point guards. The Pistons allow the fifth-most points per game and the highest shooting and 3-point percentages to point guards.
Brogdon didn’t top 15 points in any of the last four games, but those were against much better defenses. He did go Over 20.5 points in each of his previous five and seven of his last eight and should have a slump-buster performance against a poor Detroit defense.
Also see: Pacers at Pistons odds, picks and prediction
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Orlando Magic C Nikola Vučević OVER 12.5 rebounds (+100)
Two injury-ravaged squads collide when the Orlando Magic visit the Golden State Warriors Thursday at Chase Center.
The Magic have both backcourt starters listed as questionable and are already down two starting forwards while the Warriors are without both bigs. This paves the way for an elite window-cleaner like Vučević to gobble up a ton of rebounds.
Vučević has stepped up his rebounding production this month to average 15 rebounds per game through four outings, and he has grabbed 14 or more rebounds in four of his previous five games to push him to 13th in total rebounding percentage. Vučević had 13 rebounds in his last two games against Golden State and the Warriors give up the fifth-most rebounds per game to opposing centers.
Golden State already plays at the second-fastest pace and will probably speed it up vs. Orlando, which just gives more opportunity for our Vučević rebounds prop to go Over.
Also see: Magic at Warriors odds, picks and prediction
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Miami Heat SF Jimmy Butler OVER 26.5 points + assists (-110)
Butler has beefed up the offensive production for a Miami team that’s regressed a lot from last season’s NBA Finals run. It’s fair to say there are a lot of factors that have contributed to said regression and the Heat should figure this thing out, but at the moment their offensive scheme is centered on Butler.
Since returning from injury six games ago, Butler is averaging 21.8 points, 8.3 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game. For the season, he is averaging a career-high in assist percentage and has the second-highest usage rate of his career. As long as Heat PG Goran Dragic is out of the lineup, Miami will need Butler to initiate the offense.
Finally, Butler has been attacking the basket since returning from injury and is averaging the second-most free-throw attempts per game (12.0) over his last six games.
Butler’s aggressiveness combined with Houston ranking 22nd in opponent’s FTA/FGA rate and opposing small forwards averaging the third-most free-throw attempts per game should equal easy money here for Butler’s Over.
Also see: Heat at Rockets odds, picks and prediction
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