Few leagues will humble you as fast as the NFL the moment you enjoy even a semblance of success. Time and time again, apparent young superstars fly way too close to the sun and predictably have their wings burned off.
We can probably safely add the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud to that depressing catalog — at least for now.
On Sunday, the second-year quarterback looked like a shell of the passer who broke several records en route to an Offensive Rookie of the Year Award in 2023. Stroud’s recent alarming struggles culminated in him taking a backbreaking, game-losing safety to seal a bad loss to the woeful Tennessee Titans. This, on a day where Stroud already threw two interceptions and took four sacks (they are a quarterback stat!).
Something is broken with someone who was anointed The Next Great Quarterback over the past entire offseason:
SAFETY AND THE TITANS WILL WIN IT pic.twitter.com/0iGlaN2Np8
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) November 24, 2024
I have little doubt that a great quarterback remains somewhere inside of Stroud. Talent doesn’t just leave players like him overnight. It’s just that we haven’t seen that great quarterback in an alarming amount of time now.
Stroud hasn’t thrown for at least 300 yards since early October. His average yards per pass attempt (7.2) has dropped a full point off of last year’s sparking number (8.2). His passer rating (88.0) has dropped more than 12 full points from his rookie campaign (100.8). The most disturbing element in Stroud’s issues is how he now creates actively negative plays for the Texans’ offense. His 1.9 interception percentage is league-average a year after he took care of the ball better than almost everyone, and his sack percentage of 8.79 is bottom-10 in the league.
I don’t care who you are. No offense and no quarterback can survive that kind of self-inflicting volatile mix.
There are several plausible culprits in play for Stroud’s sophomore slump. A year after being recognized as one of the NFL’s hottest coaches, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik’s scheme has stagnated. It asks entirely too much of Stroud to be a hero for the Houston offense to function. The loss of Stefon Diggs also doesn’t help, as there aren’t too many security blankets for a young quarterback to lean on. Plus, if the Texans’ rushing offense doesn’t get going with Joe Mixon, their play has no discernible rhythm.
Still, this doesn’t excuse Stroud, who has shown a stunning lack of poise against pressure and in structure just a year after being one of the finest in those categories. He has played an immense role in his own problems, and he needs to learn from them in earnest before becoming an elite player again.
Full stop.
Don’t get me wrong. There’s plenty of time for the 23-year-old Stroud to turn things around and still reach his massive potential.
But this 2024 season has unearthed an evergreen fact about gifted young quarterbacks. Their development is not linear. It never has been. They are not guaranteed to keep excelling after one great season. Most, in fact, will take their lumps and experience lows before hopefully returning to their highs.
And if you’re the Texans, you should’ve been more prepared for that reality with the face of your franchise.