The Cincinnati Reds (10-13) look to bounce back from a devastating loss on Thursday against the St. Louis Cardinals (7-7). On Friday, first pitch is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. We analyze the Reds-Cardinals betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Reds at Cardinals: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Anthony DeSclafani vs. RHP Dakota Hudson
DeSclafani didn’t allow a single earned run in his first two starts, but was torched to the tune of nine earned runs in two innings last time out. He now carries a 6.23 ERA into this divisional battle.
- He has a history of success against the Cardinals. In 15 career appearances (14 starts), he boasts a 3.08 ERA, with 78 strikeouts in 76 innings (9.2 K/9).
- DeSclafani’s last start pushed his career home ERA up to 4.77. On the road, he owns a strong 3.54 ERA, including a 3.25 mark in seven starts at Busch Stadium.
Hudson has made just two starts on the season, and has allowed five earned runs in 8 1/3 innings. He was effective in his first start back from the team’s COVID-19 layoff (4 IP, 1 ER), but was limited to just 55 pitches.
- Backed by a 57% groundball rate, he put up an excellent 3.35 ERA across 174 2/3 innings in 2019. However, his skills, which included a 7.0 K/9 and 1.6 K:BB, didn’t come close to supporting the results.
- Thanks in part to a .245 BABIP, Hudson has been a much better pitcher at home to this point in his career than he has on the road. At Busch Stadium, he owns a 2.62 ERA, compared to a 4.24 mark at all other parks.
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Reds at Cardinals: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Reds
- OF Nick Senzel (illness) out
- RP Pedro Strop (groin) out
Cardinals
- C Matt Wieters (toe) out
- RP Ryan Helsley (COVID-19) out
- SS Paul DeJong (COVID-19) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Reds at Cardinals: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Reds 7, Cardinals 5
Moneyline (ML)
Both teams come into this game with odds of -106 to win the game outright in a pick ’em. Though Hudson has walked just two batters in his first two starts, he typically has a lot of traffic on the base paths against him due to all of the free passes he dishes out.
DeSclafani’s skills are also pretty mediocre, but the disaster in his last outing can be chalked up as an aberration. The Reds run out the stronger lineup, and should eventually come out on top. Back the REDS (-106).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
As noted above, Hudson’s history of success at home has largely been due to luck on balls in play. His shaky skills aren’t going to hold up over the long haul, and the REDS -1.5 (+140) stand a strong chance of winning this one by multiple runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
These offenses have been relatively quiet so far, as the Reds and Cardinals rank 23rd and 24th, respectively, in runs per game this season. The bats should get going today, as both starting pitchers own pretty marginal skills.
Also, the St. Louis pen is at less than full strength right now, and the Reds’ relief core is sporting a 6.17 ERA, which is second highest in the league. Both teams should have a pretty good day at the plate, which should lead to the OVER 9 (-110) hitting in this game.
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