The Cincinnati Reds (17-22) and Pittsburgh Pirates (12-25) play the third game of a four-game series in the Steel City Saturday at PNC Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Reds-Pirates MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Tied 1-1.
Reds at Pirates: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Anthony DeSclafani vs. RHP Trevor Williams
DeSclafani: 1-2 with a 7.71 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 21 IP over 5 starts.
- Last start: Loss with 3 2/3 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 3 K and 4 BB against the St. Louis Cardinals Aug. 31.
- Career vs. Pirates: 2-7 with a 5.35 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 62 K and 24 BB in 72 1/3 IP over 14 starts.
Williams: 1-5 with a 5.50 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 34 1/3 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start: No-decision with 4 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 6 K and 2 BB in a 6-5 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Aug. 31.
- Career vs. Reds: 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 46 K and 13 BB in 63 1/3 IP over 13 games (10 starts).
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Reds at Pirates: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Reds
- OF Nick Senzel (undisclosed) out
Pirates
- RP Keone Kela (forearm) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Reds at Pirates: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Pirates 9, Reds 4
Moneyline (ML)
It could be just me but I think the betting public’s perception of the Reds (-139) is off. Cincinnati came into the year as a sleeper to win the NL Central but has been disappointing given expectations (32.5 preseason wins total) and its roster. The market hasn’t adjusted to the Reds’ below-averageness.
The PIRATES (+125) haven’t been a good baseball team but they weren’t expected to be a good baseball team. Pittsburgh wasn’t good last year (69-93) but was still 12-7 against Cincinnati. The 2020 season series of Reds-Pirates is tied 2-2.
DeSclafani has gotten shelled his past five starts against the Pirates (0-3 with an 8.61 ERA and 7 HR allowed) and Williams has been good against the Reds. TAKE THE PIRATES (+125).
New to sports betting? A $100 bet on the Pirates (+125) returns a $125 profit if Pittsburgh upsets Cincinnati.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Back to the market’s read on the Reds (-1.5, +105), Cincinnati has a 14-25 RL record this season (3rd-worst in MLB). Pittsburgh is 21-16 on the RL and, again, has been a little feistier than it’s given credit for.
I like them so much here, BET PIRATES -1.5 (+230) on the alternate run line.
New to sports betting? A $50 bet on the Pirates -1.5 (+230) alternate run line pays a $115 profit if Pittsburgh wins by two or more runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
We have enough action on this game and I don’t like the Over/Under trends here so I am going to PASS on the total.
The Pirates have the 7th-highest Over percentage in the MLB (58%) but the Reds have a 7-13 O/U record on the road this season. The Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings; however, the Under is 6-1 in DeSclafani’s last seven road starts.
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