The Cincinnati Reds (10-26) and Cleveland Guardians (16-18) close out their 2-game Buckeye State series Wednesday with a 6:10 p.m. ET game at Progressive Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Cleveland leads 2-1.
The Reds won Tuesday 5-4 and have won 6 of their last 9 games. They own a fine 3.83 ERA since May 8.
Cleveland has lost 4 of its last 5. The Guardians own a 4.88 ERA since April 22 and Cleveland starters own a 5.68 ERA since that date.
Reds at Guardians projected starters
RHP Tyler Mahle vs. RHP Cal Quantrill
Mahle (2-4, 5.89 ERA) has notched a 1.47 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 across 36 2/3 IP in 8 starts.
- Is coming off a sharp effort (2 R, 1 BB, 8 K in 6 IP) vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Has been beaten up by a .324 batting average on balls in play and a 56.2% left-on-base rate.
- Registered a 2.30 ERA, 1.04 WHIP on the road last season.
Quantrill (1-2, 3.93 ERA) has made 6 starts, logging a 1.28 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 5.2 K/9 in 34 1/3 IP.
- Has benefitted from a .257 BABIP and a low 5% rate of fly balls landing as home runs.
Reds at Guardians odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8:06 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Guardians -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL): Reds +1.5 (-180) | Guardians -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Reds at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 4, Guardians 3
Money line
Looking at the pitching for the price, CINCINNATI (+115) is the top play here. Mahle swings the value-meter to the visitors.
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Run line/Against the spread
The Under has had some push in early betting, and the Cincy money line would be worth investigating but its drowned out by a lot of juice. PASS.
Over/Under
Both sides have some surface batting stats and run-scoring numbers not fully supported by advanced analytics and batted-ball metrics. Cleveland’s offense hasn’t been terribly productive at home; the same applies for Cincinnati’s bats on the road.
BACK THE UNDER 7.5 (-110).
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