The Cincinnati Reds (18-23) open a three-game series against the Chicago Cubs (24-18) with an 8:15 p.m. ET Tuesday night tilt at Wrigley Field. Below, we analyze the Reds-Cubs MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Reds at Cubs: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Tyler Mahle vs. RHP Alec Mills
Mahle owns a 3.90 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 30 innings pitched in 2020.
- Has benefited from a .206 batting average on balls in play and an 82% strand rate when runners reach base. Mahle owns a 4.78 career ERA and his true performance has been more along those lines through five starts.
Mills is making his eighth start of the season, doubling the number he made a year ago when he logged a 2.75 ERA in 36 innings of swingman work. The now-28-year-old has registered a 5.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 37 2/3 IP this season.
- Has faced Cincinnati twice this season with 6 ER over 9 IP. Reds batters have hit 4 HR off Mills. In 62 all-time plate appearances against him, current Cincy batters own a robust .352 isolated power mark. Six different players have homered off Mills in that record.
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Reds at Cubs: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Reds
- OF Nick Senzel (undisclosed) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Reds at Cubs: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML)
On the whole, the Cubs’ run production backs a slightly lower win total than the 24 they’ve managed thus far. Run scoring and prevention cuts in on both margins when looking at support data. The Reds figure as a bit of an opposite on those counts. Pitching in this one is muddy, and the line has any value tamped down. A pass on Reds -106/Cubs -106 is suggested.
New to sports betting? A winning $100 bet at -106 returns a profit of $94.34.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The lean here — on the basis of price more than anything else — is CUBS +1.5 (-182).
Over/Under (O/U)
Wind affects totals at Wrigley Field more than any other venue in Major League Baseball. The Tuesday night forecast is for a hefty and helping gale for the pitchers, a 19 mph breeze in from left-center. And that largely gets accounted for in the total. It would also wise to peg both teams to have better bullpens than the numbers broadcast by surface ERAs: 5.08 for the Reds and 4.20 for the Cubs.
Add in some slumbering bats on both sides (Cincinnati: 3.4 runs per game, .659 OPS last 8 games; Chicago 2.8 RPG, .679 OPS last 6 games), and back the UNDER 7.5 (+100).
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