Game 2 of the NL Wild Card series between the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves goes Thursday afternoon at 12:08 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Below, we analyze the Reds-Braves MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Reds at Braves: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Luis Castillo vs. RHP Ian Anderson
Castillo registered a 3.21 ERA and 1.23 WHIP during the regular season. With a fastball that sits at 97 miles per hour, the 27-year-old hurler excels at getting ground balls (58% GB) while limiting hard contact (31% hard contact, 4.5% barrels).
- Is a better pitcher at home by nearly a run in ERA and over 100 points of OPS over his career.
- In limited work, has been tagged with a high-contact .985 OPS by current Atlanta bats.
Anderson is a 22-year-old rookie who logged a 1.95 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in six starts since joining the Braves’ rotation in late August. Like his mound foe in this one, the Atlanta right-hander has been productive in inducing ground balls (53% GB) while limiting hard contact (26%, 1.2%).
- Has his numbers buoyed by a .250 batting average on balls in play and a low rate of fly balls carrying over the outfield wall.
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Reds at Braves: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
None.
Reds at Braves: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.
Money line (ML)
The Reds (+120) were a solid value late in the season, but those days are likely over with their win-loss record and some statistical anomalies catching up with talent levels. The Cincinnati offense is not at its best away from home with a .660 OPS. The Reds bat more lefty swingers than most clubs, but Anderson has done well to limit damage from that side with a .399 OPS allowed and 37% strikeout rate.
Atlanta (-134) bashes right-handers (.859 OPS) and owned the league’s third-best OPS at home during the regular season (.868). There is some risk with Anderson pitching on long rest (six days). He’s making his postseason debut but so is Castillo.
More than with any year in memory, postseason analysis in 2020 requires some thought on strength of schedule. On both sides of the ball, Atlanta has come through a tougher a slate. That especially colors the numbers logged by starting pitchers. Dating to 2019, Atlanta is 37-17 over its last 54 home games. Back the BRAVES (-134) to win Game 2 and the series.
New to sports betting? A $134 bet on the Braves (-134) pays a $100 profit if Atlanta beats Cincinnati.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
With a likable Under (see below) and the visitors potentially getting one more set of cuts, PASS ON ATLANTA -1.5 (+150).
Over/Under (O/U)
Both pitchers throw a lot of change-ups and both nines rank as bottom-12 in production against that pitch. In a park that favors pitchers and on what figures as a low-humidity day in Atlanta, TAKE THE UNDER 7.5 (-110).
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