The Cincinnati Reds (5-1) kick off a three-game set Friday with the Arizona Diamondbacks (2-5) at Chase Field. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cincinnati has won five in a row, all in the NL Central Division, and just swept a three-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates, outscoring them 30-8 in the set.
Arizona, which started its season playing NL West Division rivals, has dropped back-to-back games to lose its previous series against the Colorado Rockies 2-1.
RHP Tyler Mahle (1-0) is the projected starter for the Reds. Mahle picked up a win at home against the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday. He pitched five innings, surrendering two earned runs and four hits while striking out nine with just two walks in Cincinnati’s 9-6 victory.
Last season, Mahle was 2-2 with a 3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 across 9 starts and 1 relief appearance.
RHP Taylor Widener (1-0) is on the hill Friday for the Diamondbacks. Widener had a quality start in a win against the San Diego Padres for his first-career start Sunday. He pitched six scoreless innings, striking out five Padres hitters and walking three with just three hits allowed.
In 2020, Widener was 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 in 12 relief appearances.
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Reds at Diamondbacks odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Rangers +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+105) | Rangers +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Reds 7, Diamondbacks 3
Money line (ML)
It’s only a six-game sample size, but the REDS (-150) have only faced right-handed starters and have by far the best advanced hitting numbers vs. righties.
Also, the absences of Arizona’s CF Ketel Marte and SS Nick Ahmed are probably a welcomed sight for Mahle. Both players hit homers off of him in his only career start vs. the Diamondbacks in 2019.
However, I only “LEAN” to the REDS (-150) for 0.75 units because we are late to the party and Cincinnati opened as a -120 money line favorite.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the Reds -1.5 (+105) for a quarter unit since it’s still plus-money, but just like Cincinnati’s money line, we are getting the worse of the Reds’ run line.
That being said, I am not sure about Widener’s future as a starter and I don’t believe Arizona knows either.
Widener had a 60% hard-hit rate in his first start against the Padres and more or less got lucky with a .200 BABIP.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a “LEAN” toward the Under because Arizona is missing Marte, Ahmed and RF Kole Calhoun, who led the team in homers last season.
The reason for the PASS is because Cincinnati’s hitters are raking through the first week of the season.
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