The last time the Green Bay Packers played the Detroit Lions, Matt LaFleur’s offense scored just nine points. Aaron Rodgers threw three interceptions and was held to 6.4 yards per pass attempt, which if done over the course of the season, would rank 31st in the NFL. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, meanwhile, totaled 69 rushing yards at 2.9 yards per rush.
I discussed the topic in greater detail here, but in short, the Packers’ run on offense over the last eight games has largely consisted of a strong running game for them to lean on. In the two games during that stretch where they failed to score more than 17 points – the Detroit and Tennessee games – Jones and Dillon would combine for 112 rushing yards at fewer than three yards per rush attempt.
The Detroit run defense hasn’t been particularly good this season, either. They are allowing 5.3 yards per rush this season, one of the worst rates in the NFL, and rank 27th in rush defense by DVOA. However, they did limit the Packers on the ground during their last matchup, in large part to an aggressive approach on defense.
In that game, we saw a lot of cover-1, heavier boxes, and the Detroit cornerbacks jamming the Green Bay receivers at the line of scrimmage. Essentially, the Lions were daring the Packers to throw the ball, and Rodgers obliged by having 43 pass attempts, but the passing game simply wasn’t effective enough – or good enough at that time – to rely upon that heavily.
Since then, however, we’ve seen the emergence of Christian Watson, which has given Green Bay a much-needed big-play threat on the outside. Along with bringing that home run ability and opening up opportunities for other targets, his presence has impacted how opponents defend Green Bay. It’s now a major risk to shrink the field or even sit in cover-1 because doing so could very well lead to getting beat downfield–this, in turn, is a good thing for the run game.
In two of the last three games, the Packers have faced Minnesota, and Los Angeles, two teams who utilize a lot of two-high looks, which is susceptible to the run game, and Green Bay has leaned on Jones and Dillon, who have combined for 308 rushing yards on 44 attempts at a whopping 7.0 yards per carry.
Watson’s presence could very well change how the Lions go about defending the Packers’ offense, potentially opening up the running game for them this time around. With a balanced and less predictable approach on offense, the playbook opens up for Matt LaFleur, and defenses can really be stressed when the run and passing games play off of each other.
“It starts with execution. It starts with the foundation of running the ball,” said offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich via Packers.com prior to the bye week. “We did a very good job versus Dallas with that, and I thought Philly, for the most part, we did a very good job of running the ball there too, and when you can do that, and you have a guy outside who can take the top off the defense, that’s how it all plays together. So, it is that simple as long as you’re running the ball effectively.”
Another area where the Packers will also have to be better this time is in the red zone after they went 0-4 against Detroit in Week 9. Overall, Green Bay has struggled in the red zone this season, ranking 23rd in success rate, partly due to teams taking away the run and forcing the Packers to throw the ball. Even with the play of Watson and the improved passing game performance, Green Bay still hasn’t had that go-to option inside the 20-yard line. For what it’s worth – because it didn’t matter much in the first meeting – the Lions do have one of the worst red zone defenses in the NFL.
If needed, the passing game is in a much better spot now than it was against Detroit. For starters, Rodgers’ thumb is healthy, and Green Bay will have both Romeo Doubs and Watson available, with Watson playing at a much higher level. So if the Lions do choose to bottle up the run game again, Green Bay does seem better equipped to handle that. But with that said, I would expect a different approach from the Lions’ defense this time around.
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