The Milwaukee Brewers (58-41) host the Chicago White Sox (58-40) Sunday for the finale of their three-game interleague series at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 13-2 as the Brew Crew’s bullpen has only allowed 1 run with 7 strikeouts and just 2 walks in 8 innings of work.
Season series: Brewers lead 2-0.
RHP Lance Lynn is Chicago’s projected starter. Lynn is 9-3 with a 1.94 ERA (97 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 over 17 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Chicago’s 3-2 loss to the Minnesota Twins Monday.
- 2021 road splits: 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.39 WHIP and 2.2 K/BB in six starts.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster: 5.31 FIP with a .235 batting average, .326 wOBA, .460 expected slugging percentage, 26.3 K% and 90.3 mph exit velocity in 76 plate appearances.
RHP Brandon Woodruff makes his 20th start for the Brewers. Woodruff is 7-4 with a 2.04 ERA (119 IP, 27 ER), 0.83 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 4 BB and 8 K in Milwaukee’s 7-4 win at the Cincinnati Reds July 17.
- 2021 home splits: 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA (54 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 0.97 WHIP and 6.8 K/BB in nine starts.
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White Sox at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: White Sox +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Brewers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: White Sox +1.5 (-165) | Brewers -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Brewers 6, White Sox 2
Money line (ML)
BET the BREWERS (-145) for 1 unit because Milwaukee has the most wins this season against righty starters (47-31), the White Sox struggle against good ball clubs (19-24 vs. teams with a winning record) and on the road (23-23 in away games).
Furthermore, this is a legitimate chance for Woodruff to begin challenging New York Mets starting RHP Jacob deGrom in the NL Cy Young Race since deGrom is currently on the IL.
The White Sox-Brewers series finale is a nationally televised game broadcasted on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball pitting two first-place teams against one another. If Woodruff can deal against a productive White Sox lineup on the national stage it would help him earn some much-needed buzz.
Woodruff’s pitching peripherals are stunning and he ranks in the top 10 of NL starting pitchers (minimum of 50 IP) in WAR, WHIP, home runs per nine-innings, K-BB% and hard-contact rate.
And while Lynn’s first-half numbers were awesome, he, like Chicago, is less effective against good teams. For instance, Lynn is just 1-3 this year vs. teams equal to or above-.500 with a 4.35 ERA compared to a 8-0 record and 0.81 ERA against teams sub-.500.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS even though the Brewers -1.5 (+140) is very enticing. However, Milwaukee’s lineup ranks in the bottom 5 of several advanced hitting metrics at home including wRC+, wOBA and OPS. Also, the Brewers are 19-24 ATS as a home favorite this season.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-105) for a tiny wager – if at all – because the White Sox are 8-4-2 O/U as a road underdog this season and the Brewers are 19-18-6 O/U as a home favorite.
Given those trends above and the fact that these teams have a combined 11-23 O/U when these starters take the mound this should be a good spot for a “contrarian play” against a market that figures to betting the Under.
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