The Houston Astros (40-25) host the Chicago White Sox (31-32) for the rubber match of their 3-game series on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch at Minute Maid Park is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the White Sox vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Chicago evened the series by shutting out Houston 7-0 Saturday after being clobbered in the series opener 13-3 Friday. This is the 1st White Sox-Astros series of the season and it’s tied 1-1. The teams meet again Aug. 15-18 in Chicago.
White Sox at Astros projected starters
RHP Michael Kopech vs. RHP Cristian Javier
Kopech is 2-2 with a 1.92 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 51 2/3 IP over 11 starts.
- Exited Sunday’s start after just 13 pitches thrown and 2/3 IP with right knee soreness in Chicago’s 8-6 home loss to the Texas Rangers.
- 2022 road splits: 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA (23 IP, 6 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 2 HR and 9.8 K/9 in 5 starts.
Javier is 3-3 with a 3.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 in 50 2/3 IP over 8 starts and 4 relief appearances.
- Last start: No-decision in Houston’s 5-3 loss at the Rangers Monday with 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 7 K.
- 2022 home splits: 2-2 with a 1.98 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.88 WHIP, 2 HR and 11.5 K/9 in 4 starts and 2 relief outings.
White Sox at Astros odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:46 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): White Sox +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Astros -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): White Sox +1.5 (-170) | Astros -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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White Sox at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
White Sox 4, Astros 2
Money line
BET a half-unit on the WHITE SOX (+125) because the reverse line movement headed toward Chicago in the betting market is my biggest handicapping angle.
The Astros (-155) were listed at -170 early Sunday morning on Tipico Sportsbook and their ML has been lowered despite more than 90% of the money being wagered on Houston at Tipico.
This suspicious line movement leads me to believe the House is laying a trap with Astros. Kopech was pulled in the 1st inning of his last start, Javier pitches much better at home and Houston has an edge over Chicago in the bullpen and lineup. Yet the Astros are getting cheaper. Hmmm.
Also, the White Sox have a plus-30.7% return on investment (ROI) as road underdogs of +125 or more, which includes Chicago’s 7-0 victory over Houston Saturday with SP Justin Verlander on the hill.
BET the WHITE SOX (+125) lightly because of Houston’s aforementioned 2-phase edge.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The White Sox +1.5 (-170) is out of my price range because they have only a plus-20.4% RL ROI in the situation described above.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-120) because we are getting to the party late on the total since White Sox-Astros opened at 8 and has been lowered due to sharp action, per Pregame.com.
In fact, nearly 90% of the money is on the Under whereas 60% of the bets placed are on the Over 7.5 (-108). Typically, you want to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors wager a lot more cash than your average Joe.
Also, Chicago’s lineup scores nearly 3 runs fewer per 9 innings vs. right-handed pitching (6.3-3.6) and Houston is 2-6 O/U in Javier’s 8 starts.
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