The Chicago White Sox (30-31) visit the Houston Astros (39-24) Friday for the start of a 3-game series at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the White Sox vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Chicago went into Detroit this week and swept the Tigers 3-0. The White Sox are 6-4 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games after dropping 2 straight series at home vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers and Texas Rangers.
Houston won 2 of 3 at the Texas Rangers this week and the Astros are 5-5 SU in their last 10 after losing 2 consecutive series at home vs. the Seattle Mariners and Miami Marlins.
The Astros beat the White Sox 5-2 in last year’s regular-season series with a plus-12 run differential in those meetings. Houston eliminated Chicago in the 2021 American League Division Series (ALDS) 3-1 and the Astros outscored the White Sox 31-18 in the ALDS.
White Sox at Astros projected starters
RHP Lucas Giolito vs. LHP Framber Valdez
Giolito is 4-2 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 in 53 1/3 IP over 10 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Chicago’s 11-9 loss at home vs. the Rangers Saturday with 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 8 K.
- 2021 vs. the Astros: One start, a complete-game 10-1 home win July 17 with 1 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 8 K.
Valdez is 6-3 with a 2.64 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 75 IP over 12 starts.
- Last start: Lost 5-1 Saturday at home vs. the Marlins with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 6 K.
- 2021 vs. the White Sox: 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 13 H, 3 HR, 4 BB and 9 K in 2 starts.
White Sox at Astros odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:11 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): White Sox +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Astros -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): White Sox +1.5 (-155) | Astros -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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White Sox at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, White Sox 3
Money line
BET a half-unit only on the ASTROS (-170) at this price because their ML is dropping so we might get a better number closer to the first pitch.
Also, there’s more money on the White Sox (+135) but more bets have been placed on the Astros, according to Pregame.com. Typically, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors put up a lot more dough than your average Joe.
That said, the Astros have a 3-phase edge over the White Sox in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
Valdez’s advanced pitching stats rank ahead of Giolito’s and Houston’s bullpen has a better WAR than Chicago’s (2.3-1.5) per FanGraphs.
The Astros beat the White Sox in several advanced hitting metrics including WAR (11.8-6.1) wRC+ (112-99), wOBA (.319-.303) and BB/K rate (0.48-0.32).
This is a profitable spot for the Astros who are 9-2 SU at home vs. right-handed starters as favorites of -160 or greater with a plus-23.2% return on investment.
Wait until closer to the first pitch for a better number on Houston and only “flat-BET” the ASTROS (-170) 1 unit instead of betting to win 1 unit.
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN to the ASTROS -1.5 (+125) because of the aforementioned 3-phase edge and the plus-money payout on Houston’s RL.
However, I cannot fully get there on the Astros covering since the White Sox +1.5 (-155) are taking sharp action and are 9-6 RL as road underdogs.
Over/Under
PASS.
The Astros are 3-8 O/U at home vs. righties as -160 ML favorites or greater but the White Sox are 4-0-2 O/U in Giolito’s 6 road starts this season and this is a sharp total.
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