The Houston Astros (39-28) host the Chicago White Sox (43-25) for the first of a four-game series at Minute Maid Park Thursday. Game 1’s first pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the White Sox vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: 0-0.
RHP Dylan Cease makes his 14th start for the White Sox. Cease is 5-2 with a 3.38 ERA (66 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 15-2, with 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 7 K Saturday at the Detroit Tigers.
- vs. Astros on the current roster: 16 at-bats with a .250/.429/.500 slash line, 3/5 K/BB, 1 HR and 1 RBI.
RHP Jose Urquidy takes the mound for the Astros. Urquidy is 4-3 with a 3.77 ERA (62 IP, 26 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 over 11 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 7 K in Houston’s 6-4 win at the Minnesota Twins Friday.
- No career appearances vs. White Sox.
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White Sox at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: White Sox +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Astros -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: White Sox +1.5 (-185) | Astros -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Prediction
Astros 5, White Sox 3
Money line (ML)
GIMME the ASTROS (-125) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit since they have a decisive edge in the starting pitching matchup, but I want to avoid the full game money line because Houston’s bullpen is 27th in WAR.
For instance, Cease has been far less effective on the road and against teams with a winning record; whereas Urquidy pitches well at home, and his numbers don’t dip vs. winning teams.
Cease is undefeated at home (3-0) with a 1.63 home ERA and 1.06 home WHIP but is 2-2 on the road with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP.
Furthermore, Cease is 4-0 against teams below .500 with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP compared to a 1-2 record vs. teams above .500 with a 6.38 ERA and 1.69 WHIP.
On the other side, Urquidy is 3-1 at home with a 2.83 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 12.0 K/BB rate vs. a 1-2 record on the road with a 4.59 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 3.4 K/BB rate.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Astros -1.5 (+150) because I love the price point here. However, Houston’s bullpen is just too unreliable, and Chicago’s lineup is too deadly.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9 (-120) for a half unit because that’s where the presumed “sharp” side of the market is betting.
According to Pregame.com, more than 85% of the money wagered is on the Under; whereas a slight majority of the bets placed are on the Over, and typically, it’s wiser to follow the money in sports betting when it’s going in the opposite direction as the public.
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